Ranson Lo | 23 January 2024

Summary

• Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won Taiwan’s presidential election with 40.1% of the votes.

• Cross-Strait relations between Taiwan and China are expected to remain antagonistic.

• Expected increases in Chinese cyber and military activities around Taiwan in the short run with a low risk of escalation or disruption of maritime trade routes.

Lai Ching-te has led the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to victory in the general election in Taiwan held on 13th January 2024 in the three-way race with Hou Yu-ih’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Ko Wen-je’s Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Lai, the vice president of the incumbent administration under Tsai Ing-wen, advocating for the sovereignty of the island-state amid China’s persistent military threats, received 40.1% of the votes, the lowest since the 2000 election. The DPP also failed to attain a parliamentary majority by winning only 51 of the 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan (the Taiwanese parliament). 

Lai and the DPP’s victory have drawn criticism from China, as the president-elect was denounced by Beijing on separate occasions as a “separatist”, both before and after the election, indicating that the Cross-Strait relations are unlikely to improve during his term. Taiwan’s international position is further weakened as Nauru, a Pacific island nation, severed ties with the island and opted to recognise China instead under Beijing’s influence. The loss of the parliament majority will also prove to be difficult for Lai and the DPP to advance any major reforms or policies without partnering with the TPP, especially over issues regarding Taiwan’s defence and international recognition, which have been campaigned against by the KMT that has becoming increasingly pro-Beijing in the past decade. 

Forecast

• Cross-Strait relations are very likely to remain antagonistic throughout Lai’s administration until 2028, China-Taiwan unification talks are very unlikely during this period.

• Short-term: High probability of increased military activity by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) within the next 3 to 6 months, posing a minor risk of potential escalation into active armed conflicts and disruption to maritime trades.

• Long-term: High probability of disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks by China’s state-sponsored trolls targeting Taiwan’s government and public until the next general election in 2028, posing major risks to the island’s democracy and infrastructure.