Shree Priya Thakur | 7 June 2024

Summary

• Over 400 submarine cables carrying 97% of the world’s internet traffic function as the backbone of internet connectivity, with private investors and tech giants securing a market share of over 40%. 

• Deep Sea cables face risks from geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and sophisticated malicious attacks, necessitating the need to explore alternatives in the form of Lower Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite internet.

• LEO satellites provide faster internet access in underserved areas and the combined use of subsea cables and LEO networks can address the concerns of infrastructure weaponisation.

Known as the world’s information superhighways, submarine communication cables or subsea cables carry 97% of the global internet traffic, connecting continents and countries in real-time. Major cable routes such as the Euro-Atlantic, the oldest pathway, carry internet traffic between major economic powers like the United States, United Kingdom, and France, accounting for USD 10 trillion in financial transfers alone. Similarly, the Asia-Pacific subsea route is elemental to the economies of Indonesia and the Philippines, evidenced by the expansion of cloud infrastructure and deployment of Artificial Intelligence in this region. Functioning as the backbone of the world’s critical communications infrastructure, the 400-odd active cables deployed in the Arctic, North Pacific, Mediterranean, and North Atlantic regions are anticipating a USD 5 billion investment in 2024/2025 alone. Predominantly in the private sector, today, tech giants like Google and Amazon are major players in the expansion of subsea cables, contributing to over 20% of cable instalments. Private investors and infrastructure companies hold a massive 40% market share and are the pioneers behind the expansion of cloud players and hyperscalers. 

Despite their reliability and efficiency, the subsea cables are not immune to damage. In the era of weaponised interdependence, the 97% concentration of data traffic into one system is a breeding ground for geopolitical vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the recent attack on Red Sea cables. Apart from physical and digital vulnerabilities, subsea cables also suffer accidental damage caused by underwater earthquakes, shipping, and commercial fishing. In recent years, sophisticated malicious attacks such as stationing submarines close to cable lines to intercept traffic and digital piracy are common occurrences. 

The outright reliance on subsea cables can be better understood in the context of the undersea fibre cable cuts of March 2024. The remediation action impacted internet connectivity across several African countries, disrupting business, hindering emergency services, and affecting millions of internet users. A subsequent wave of internet outages was seen in Liberia, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Benin, and Niger, and more damaging cables such as the West Africa Cable System (WACS), South Atlantic 3 (SAT3), MainOne, and Africa Coast to Europe (ACE) sea cables. 

Apart from these, multiple occurrences of undersea fibre cable damages are evidenced across the world: 

• In Egypt, in 2013, three deep sea divers were arrested on the charge of attempting to cut the SEA-ME-WE 4 cable, which supplied primary internet connectivity to Asia, Africa, and Europe 

• In 2017, Typhoon Pakhar and Hato significantly damaged the SEA-ME-WE3 cable, impacting Singapore, Vietnam, and Pakistan 

• In 2020, the West Africa Cable System (WACS) and South Atlantic 3 suffered from cable cuts after a rock fall in the Congo Canyon. 

In light of these vulnerabilities, it is high time alternative passages to reroute internet traffic were explored to shift dependency patterns and subsequently mitigate chances of weaponisation. Satellite internet becomes an attractive substitute. It is not uncommon to see the use of satellite networks to revive connectivity after natural disasters or damages, as observed during the recent Red-sea cable attacks where submarine cable users equipped with antennas and backup equipment can restore communication within 15 minutes through satellite networks. Intelsat and other private ventures offer space-based methods to resuscitate communication to terrestrial infrastructure quickly. Even during critical outages, such as the January 2022 volcanic eruption in Tonga, which damaged international telecom cables, satellites could revive connectivity in a few days. Unlike undersea cables, satellite networks can further bridge the digital divide by offering global coverage immune from local disruptions.

The Synergy between Submarine Cables and Lower Earth Orbit Satellite-Networks

LEO satellites, the preferred medium of satellite internet, can act as a viable ancillary to subsea cables. Though costlier than undersea cables (USD 100-500 million), satellite networks cost approximately USD 5-10 billion and have a shorter lifespan (5-10 years), than undersea cables (25 years). Yet, LEO satellites can provide faster internet access and lower latency, making them suitable for underserved areas. Compared to Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geostationary Equatorial Orbit (GEO) satellites, LEO networks are closer to the Earth’s surface, accelerating the speed and access. By facilitating deployment flexibility, users can connect to LEO satellites using antennas, enabling broadband access in remote locations like boats, ships, hills, and other unserved regions. 

Yet, it is important to differentiate that LEO satellite networks are not a replacement but ancillary to fibre-optic submarine networks. Currently, the MEO and GEO satellite deployment cannot provide subsea cables' economic scale and low-cost capacity. The LEO satellite network, as complementary to the undersea cables, is an untapped market awaiting investment in the near future. Further, LEO satellites are a cost-efficient surrogate for small island nations which cannot afford or fiscally justify the expenditure of a sovereign fibre optic submarine cable. Island nations prone to volcano eruptions and earthquakes (think the Pacific Ring of Fire) can explore a hybrid approach of using a single submarine cable and satellite network as backup. Essentially, LEO satellite networks can help share the burden of 400+ subsea cables. 

While subsea cables are indispensable critical infrastructure, their susceptibility to damage and malicious attacks has prompted further innovation and exploration in what is currently an untapped market. The synergies of LEO networks and undersea cables can facilitate resilient, high-capacity internet infrastructure, bridging the digital divide through an alliance of the sea and space. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Highly likely that different combinations of undersea cable and LEO satellite-based internet will be explored through private sector investment, specifically to be deployed in critical regions such as the Mediterranean and Pacific Islands. 

• Long-term

  • As infrastructure transcends the exosphere, the spread of LEO satellite constellations with the commensurate rise in undersea cables will raise concerns about space and sea debris, necessitating a global consensus and legislation.