Alice Delhaye | 29 January 2024

Summary

• Since the Hamas attacks on 7th October 2023 and Israel’s retaliation in Palestine, lone wolf Islamist terrorist attacks have risen in Western Europe. 

• Lone wolf terrorists are expected to become a salient security threat in Western Europe. 

• These events will probably lead to major consequences on security policies, immigration laws and levels of religious tolerance. 

2023 saw the revival of lone wolf terrorism in Western Europe. From the shooting of two Swedish citizens in Brussels by a 45-year-old man from Tunisia, to the stabbing of a French teacher in Arras, France by 20-year-old former student, Western European states are increasingly subject to lone wolf attacks, especially Islamist. A lone wolf acts on his or her own without orders from an organization. Though this type of attack emerged in Europe during the 2010s, notably due to the Syrian War, their intensity has been decreasing since 2018. However, since the October 7th Hamas attacks in Israel and the renewal of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, lone wolf Islamist terrorism has substantially escalated. As Europol’s spokesperson stated, lone actors are expected to perpetrate most of the terrorist attacks in the EU. 

This surge in terrorist attacks is likely to foster a climate of insecurity within European states. Beyond the strategy of terror, lone wolf terrorists can particularly be effective at instilling fear, and thus insecurity within their audience. Indeed, because they are solitary actors, they are much more difficult to identify, target and arrest. As counter-terrorism policies are not as effective against this type of terrorism, Western European populations are likely to feel unsafe and further, unprotected. 

Forecast

• Short-term: High probability of increased securitisation of public spaces such as schools; which is unlikely to mitigate or ease the climate of insecurity. 

• Medium-term: As most of the perpetrators of the recent attacks were foreign immigrants, these events are probable to intensify the debates around immigration laws and might result in stricter immigration laws in Western states. 

• Long-term: Islamophobia and other forms of intolerance will likely heighten.