Jakub Gazda | 3 June 2024

Summary

• On 15th May 2024, the first politically motivated assassination took place in Slovakia.

• While many have hoped the attack would have mended Slovak society's extreme polarisation, many government politicians have hijacked the issue for themselves.

• Although the attack is expected to become an essential campaign tool in the upcoming European elections, legislative ramifications are unlikely.

On 15th May 2024, after participating in a session of government outside Slovakia's capital, Robert Fico, the country's longest-serving prime minister, was shot outside the local cultural centre while meeting supporters. According to local reporting, out of the five shots fired at the Prime Minister, four are said to have hit Fico.  In critical condition, he was transported using a helicopter to the nearest hospital and underwent five hours of surgery. As of May 20th 2024, Fico is allegedly in a serious, yet not life-threatening condition. Shortly after the shooting, the Interior Ministerannounced that the perpetrator, who was arrested at the scene in Handlova, was a 71-year-old man, further elaborating that the attack had been politically motivated. The perpetrator was allegedly disgruntled with the Fico government’s policies.

As could have been expected in a country as polarised by national politics as Slovakia, the nature of reactions to the attack by Slovak Politicians had widely followed the opposition-coalition boundaries. On the side of the coalition government, we have seen varying rhetoric, with the more radical members of the government, including  Andrej Danko, leader of the smallest coalition party  SNS (Slovak National Party) and Fico's SMER party vice-chairman Luboš Blah declaring an offensive against "liberal media" and the main opposition party PS (Progressive Slovakia). Meanwhile, less radical members of the SMER party and the coalition-backed president-elect Peter Pellegrini, have called for "caution and self-possession", describing the shooting as an attack on democracy.

Simultaneously, the political opposition to the SMER-led government and reigning President, Zuzana Čaputová, have denounced the attack as a heinous act, while calling off for the time being all political campaigning, asking for the government to hold bipartisan talks on issues of national security.

It is still too early to name any true political implications of the attack. Nonetheless, based on the rhetoric and actions of leading government figures, it is possible to predict how the attack may affect future Slovak politics.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • The coalition government had planned to pass legislation with the aim of restricting the independence of NGOs and media critical of the current government. Considering that members of the coalition have blamed these actors as responsible for the attack, it is highly likely that such legislation is going to be implemented in order to further disincentivise such operations in the country, while further galvanising electoral support in the upcoming European elections.

• Long-term

  • The “Orbanisation” or even “Erdogan-style” curtailment of civil liberties is highly unlikely. despite the ongoing rhetoric suggests. This analysis is primarily based on the intra-party developments within SMER, with the "pragmatic and pro-business" wing taking charge in Fico's absence, headed by Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák. It is Kaliňák's wing of the party which has often been seen as the counterbalance to the rhetoric and actions of the radical wing of Blaha and Fico, underpinned by the Defence Minister's continued support to Slovakia's Euro-Atlantic commitments, which would be threatened by democratic backsliding of the country.