Alex Blackburn | 5 April 2024

Summary

• Recent attacks by the TPP strain ties: Pakistan accuses Taliban of lax border control. 

• Pakistan, a former Taliban supporter, expels refugees and imposes economic sanctions for regional security. 

• Pakistan uses trade leverage to press the Taliban on addressing security issues within Afghanistan. 

• Retaliatory economic sanctions have the potential to cripple the Afghan Taliban regime.   

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been significantly strained, marked by a series of deadly attacks in Pakistan's tribal region near the Afghan border. Islamabad blames Kabul for the violence, particularly holding the Taliban responsible for not effectively controlling the movement of armed groups crossing the porous border. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban, continues to launch attacks in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, demanding stricter enforcement of Islamic laws, the release of its members, and a reduced Pakistani military presence. Pakistan accuses the ruling Taliban administration of supporting the TTP insurgency, leading to a surge in violence and over 2,867 Pakistani fatalities since the Taliban's takeover in August 2021. 

This change in attitude by the Pakistani government is reflective of their general attitude towards the Taliban and their ability to maintain a stable Afghanistan. Although a previous supporter of the Taliban regime, providing monetary and logistical support during the Soviet invasion and the subsequent establishment of the Islamic Emirate, Pakistan’s move to expel 1.7 million undocumented Afghan refugees seems to spell the end of cordial relations as the Pakistani state looks for greater regional security, an attribute that the Taliban seem unequipped to provide. Indeed, this diplomatic pressure has gone further as the Pakistani government has imposed increased economic sanctions on Afghanistan to pressure the Taliban to act against the TTP and the Islamic State (IS) operating within their borders. This is especially significant, considering Pakistan is Afghanistan’s main artery of transit trade and Taliban-led Afghanistan’s main export market - accounting for over 50% of exports. Border crossings with Pakistan contribute more than 40% of Afghanistan’s customs revenues, which makes up nearly 60% of the Taliban’s total revenues. 

Forecast

• Short-term: The Pakistani government will most likely increase economic pressure on the Taliban regime despite the negative impact on its own economy. Islamabad argues that this economic pressure should force the Taliban to the table to discuss their efforts in containing the TTP and IS cells currently operating in Afghan territory.  

• Long-term: If economic pressure fails to yield results, it is not ruled out that the Pakistani government may use more direct measures to counter the threat. The Pakistani military has hinted at possible cross-border raids against TTP camps in Taliban territory, however, this would almost certainly cause relations between the two states to deteriorate further. Another escalatory option includes the possibility of the Pakistani government working with the military remnants of the Afghan Republic to strike TTP sites within Afghanistan.