Chiara Polverini | 13 June 2024

Summary

• Israeli war cabinet minister and head of the centrist alliance National Unity, Benny Gantz, quit the coalition and proposed to dissolve the parliament.

• The war cabinet has been dealing with internal division over the latest ceasefire proposal and reached an agreement over the phases of the deal.

• Netanyahu’s coalition accepted a six-week ceasefire (phase one) and the hostages deal (phase two) to withstand the opposition and international pressure. Eventually, it remained in power and planned to resume low-intensity military operations.

Former Israeli Defence Forces Chief of Staff, Benny Gantz entered into politics in the 2019 Knesset election with the Blue and White centrist alliance. His liberal Zionist programs quickly gained popularity and became Netanyahu’s strongest political rival. After the October 7 attack, Gantz’s new alliance National Unity joined the emergency government, and he became a member of the war cabinet in support of Israel’s military effort.

Dissatisfied with the result of the eight-month war and after weeks of threatening to leave the government, on the 30th of May, Gantz proposed a bill to dissolve the parliament and schedule elections in September. His goal was to put pressure on Netanyahu to get a clear outline for the hostages deal, decide on a plan for the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, demilitarise the enclave under Israeli rule, support the return of displaced Israeli citizens to the northern region invaded by Hezbollah, start the normalisation with Saudi Arabia and give a clear conscription plan. 

The next day, United States President Joe Biden disclosed a three-phase peace deal. The first phase wanted a six-week ceasefire, which included the IDF retreat from populated areas in Gaza and free access to humanitarian aid. The second phase aimed to give time to an exchange of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, and the negotiation for a permanent ceasefire. The last phase demanded the end of the hostilities and the continuation of the reconstruction plan of the enclave. Arab countries involved in the negotiations stressed the importance of a fair exchange, and the principal Israel’s allies strongly encouraged the plan. However, neither Israeli nor Hamas leadership saw their security needs guaranteed.

Netanyahu remarked that the conditions for a permanent ceasefire remained the complete defeat of Hamas, freed all the captives and the securing of Israeli borders. Key figures of the Israeli cabinet echoed the resistance to the deal. The Ministry of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Ministry of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, firmly opposed the agreement as there were no guarantees for Israel’s security. The Ministry of Defense Yoav Gallant affirmed that Israel would not have allowed Hamas’ governance in Gaza, and supported further military pressure. Likewise, far-right orthodox religious parties (Noam, Otzma Yehudit and Mafdal) which together hold 14 seats in the coalition, threatened to dissolve the parliament if Israel's military offence stops. The conservative ultra-orthodox religious parties instead (Shas and United Torah Judaism), with 18 seats, supported any proposal which would have brought the hostages back.

In this tug-of-war in the Israeli cabinet and arm-wrestling with Biden, at first, Netanyahu showed no hesitation and urged not to give up to pressure until the goal of eliminating Hamas and bringing back the hostages was achieved. On the 6th June however, Israel presented a counteroffer, which began with a temporary ceasefire, access to humanitarian aid and the partial withdrawal of the armed forces. The first stage of the new deal regulates the conditions for the exchange of captives and prisoners. Given its success, in the second stage, the Israeli forces completely withdraw from Gaza. The deal concludes with the reconstruction of the strip supported by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.

By fulfilling the urgency of the Israeli hostages issue, Netanyahu’s coalition regained some stability. In the scenario where the eight seats held by Gantz’s National Unity quit, the government would not become destabilised, and the far-right would remain in power, proceeding with the plan of Hamas’ destruction.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • It is very unlikely that Gantz’s resignation undermines Netanyahu’s government. His influence in the Knesset is not enough to form a coalition, and it is unlikely that he will become PM in the election he is calling for in September. However, more moderate parties in the current opposition will probably gain momentum and form new alliances, as the far-right religious government was already unpopular before the war.

• Medium-term

  • It is unlikely that the Israeli far-right Ministers will dismantle the government as they promised, as this would mean the permanent end of military operations in Gaza. Netanyahu’s coalition will use the 6 weeks to bring back some Israeli hostages and plan a new military offence.

• Long-term

  • The hard-liners in the Israeli cabinet are determined to keep fighting until “the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities” which means catching the leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif. Israeli intelligence will bring the hostility back to a low-intensity conflict. In a scenario where Netanyahu’s government falls right after the war, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid holds 24 parliamentary seats and would take over for another emergency government to drive through the transition until new elections.