Alice Delhaye | 9 April 2024

Summary

• The last terrorist attack on Moscow highlights the central position that ISIS-K holds in the jihadist landscape. 

• ISIS-K has significantly developed its size, recruitment pipeline and capacities since 2019. 

• ISIS-K is likely to develop the capabilities to conduct extra-regional attacks. 

On Friday 22nd March 2024, an attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow took place, resulting in at least 137 casualties. This constitutes the worst terrorist attack that Russia has seen in the last two decades. This major attack was conducted by the rising branch of the Islamic State, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K). 

ISIS-K is the ISIS branch based in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Khorasan is a historical region which refers to modern parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Iran. Unlike other jihadist groups in Central Asia, ISIS-K has the vocation to be international. In line with the central ISIS ideology, ISIS-K seeks to establish a global caliphate governed by Sharia law. ISIS-K has been growing and gaining traction since its inception in 2015; since the past couple of years, diverse factors have been allowing ISIS-K to impose itself as a powerful regional and now, international actor. 

Indeed, the death of Al-Baghdadi, first caliph of the Islamic State, in 2019 symbolised for many the decline of the central ISIS, leaving room for more freedom for its regional affiliates. As such, the Al-Azaim Foundation, which is in charge of ISIS-K propaganda, ramped up its activity. It allowed ISIS-K to produce tailored propaganda in more languages than any other ISIS branch. The Foundation published media in Pashto, Persian, Uzbek and also Russian and English in order to be able to reach the entirety of Khorasan. 

In addition, ISIS-K’s recruitment strategy was particularly effective at selecting committed and experienced combatants. One of the main pathways to recruitment is the exploitation of divisions within other jihadist groups. For instance, many ISIS-K members are formerly a part of Taliban, who became more radical and left their group as it was not extreme enough anymore. As such, it is safe to assume that the departure from the Taliban to join ISIS-K might also be due to the Taliban’s efforts to establish a Caliphate in Afghanistan rather than globally.  

The recruitment of fighters from Afghanistan is further facilitated by the porous border it shares with Tajikistan, a pillar of ISIS-K. Therefore, many of the recruits benefitted from combat experience gained in Afghanistan but also in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, the withdrawal from U.S troops and military presence in the region in 2021 marked the end of a long-term counterterrorism mission in the region. This increased the opportunities for ISIS-K to operate freely in the region, enabling it to carry out attacks in Central Asia on both regional and foreign targets.  

Forecast

• Short-term: The attack in Moscow will likely fuel ISIS-K’s popularity, leading to even more recruits and growing capacities. 

• Medium to long-term: ISIS-K will continue to develop its capacities for external operations and might be able to target European assets. 

• Long-term: ISIS-K's attack indicated the renewal of the threat posed by ISIS globally.