Shree Priya Thakur | 12 June 2024

Summary

• AI integration in military operations dates back to the 1950s, initially focusing on data analysis and the General Problem Solver (GPS) to imitate human-like problem-solving skills. 

• Modern AI applications focus on vehicles and automation alongside pattern detection to supplement situational awareness. India is increasing its foothold in this area through the development of large language models, a dedicated AI agency (DAIPA), and harnessing the expertise of its large private sector. 

• The development of AI capabilities in warfare stems from geo-political dynamics, with both the US and China heavily investing in AI for military operations and issuing guidelines for the responsible use of military AI. 

The integration of artificial intelligence into military operations dates back to the mid-20th century. Contrary to popular belief, the use of this technology to enhance the defence sector is not a threat that emerged in the 21st century, but rather a spillover from the Cold War era. Initially, AI  was centred on facilitating data analysis. During the Cold War, rudimentary forms of AI were deployed by intelligence agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the National Security Agency (NSA) to decipher foreign intelligence, essentially laying the groundwork for Natural Language Processing. In the 1950s, the General Problem Solver (GPS), an early AI program, equipped the military with human-like problem-solving skills. The establishment of the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) by the US Department of Defence further cemented the growing relevance of AI in military operations, exemplified by the DART (Dynamic Analysis and Replanning Tool), used for scheduling the transportation of personnel and arsenal.

What sets the 21st century’s use of AI in the military apart is the focus on vehicles and automation. This era includes the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or drones for reconnaissance, AI algorithms for pattern detection and an overall focus on enhancing situational awareness on the battlefield. Today’s AI-enabled warfare consists of machine learning for predictive analysis, autonomous technologies, and advanced surveillance systems aimed at anticipating the opposition’s moves. Thus, countries globally are competing to acquire cutting-edge technologies, with India being no exception to this trend. 

India’s Efforts in Implementing AI in Defence

India’s journey towards improving national AI capabilities is a product of the spatio-temporal conundrum. Spatially, it is situated as a peninsula in the Indian Ocean, engaged in cartographic warfare by two adversaries. As one of the fastest emerging economies of the world, it finds itself in a position to negotiate trade deals, enabling the transfer of defence equipment and tech know-how. India’s pursuit of developing its AI capabilities first made headlines during the public launch of advanced large-language models in late 2022. India’s armed forces are willing to leverage AI across multiple domains like risk assessment surveillance through AI-powered UAVs, cybersecurity, and logistics optimisation. 

In monetary terms, India’s  Ministry of Defence has marked USD 12 million (INR 100 crore) for the Defence Artificial Intelligence Project Agency (DAIPA) over the next five years. DAIPA supports infrastructure development, data preparation and strengthens capacity. India is following a collaborative approach relying upon the expertise of both public and private sectors, academic institutions, start-ups, and innovators under the “Make in India” Programme, to ensure India is self-sufficient militarily. 

Significant progress has been made concerning  India’s efforts towards possessing AI-enabled warfare. The most notable area of progress is the 2021 showcase of an AI-enabled swarm of 75 aerial drones by the Indian Army under the Dakshin Shakti military exercise. These aerial drones are equipped to provide imagery analysis, avoid collisions, and predict atmospheric visibility (crucial for India’s geography, which witnesses a dual monsoon season along with desert storms and intense fog in the North). The command centres are embedded within the three wings of Indian Defence; INS Valsura for the Indian Navy, Air Force Station Rajokri for the Air Force, and the Military College of Telecommunication Engineering for the Army. 

Apart from developing technological synchronisation, India is focused on extending its cognitive parity with its counterparts. For instance, India’s AI strategy includes the development of cognitive radars, employing deep neural networks and reinforcing learning methodologies. In 2018, India launched its first national strategy for AI in consonance with the establishment of a high-level Defence AI Council and Defence AI Project Agency, illustrating the sector’s growth.  Furthermore, 2022 saw the publication of 75 priority AI projects for India’s defence sector, including a mission focused on simulations, autonomous systems, cybersecurity, and data processing. Moreover, it explored the applications of AI in the underwater domain,  providing further Security and Growth for the Region (SAGAR approach for the Indian Ocean). 

Though concerns regarding the misuse of AI in the military sector persist, Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have reasserted the importance of AI capability in counter-terrorism operations and the necessity to prevent extremist organisations' malicious use of this technology. Their statements delineate the government’s aims to harness India’s large private sector expertise and the dual-use products to support the Indian military and digital economy, a step towards doubling the digital economy’s contribution to GDP by 2026. 

The amalgamation of AI into India’s military practices primarily enhances the decision-making process, a natural extension of India’s earlier steps towards integrating the three theatres of command (Army, Air Force, and Navy). One area where India seeks to develop expertise is for its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) strategy, employing advanced capabilities and manoeuvres to restrict adversaries’ access. Area Denial is particularly relevant when placing India’s border conflicts in the North and North-Eastern borders in context. 

Globally, too, the US and China are heavily investing in AI for military operations, and India, as the “leader of the Global South,” aspires to keep pace. The United States, in particular, has released guidelines for the responsible military use of AI, highlighting the need for audits of military AI systems, rigorous testing, clear use cases, and human-centric reviews. This foregrounds the importance of ethical AI deployment in the military. 

While there are concerns about AI Safety, the Indian government is continuing to remain globally competitive and secure its interests in the Indian Ocean Region. As China and Pakistan advance their AI capabilities and the US supports rapid AI advancements, it was only a matter of time before India positioned itself to shape the trajectory of AI-enabled warfare.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • In the short term, the inclusion of robust AI capabilities in the military can highly likely secure the prime objectives of saving the lives of forces, supplementing battlefield analysis, and even acting as a deterrent to violent conflicts by shifting the mode of offence to psychological or cyber warfare. 
    

• Long-term

  • As more nations adopt AI enabled warfare capabilities, it is likely that the tensions will blur the borders, creating a spillover effect. Ethical and moral considerations about quantifying damage, positively detecting targets, and generating the ability to execute conflicts far from the conflict epicentres can accelerate mistrust and global disharmony.