Lara Inglis-Jones | 12 February 2024

Summary

• Hong Kong’s government hopes to pass new national security laws targeting acts of espionage, treason, and foreign political influence.  

• This increase in security laws further restricts civil freedoms in the city and undermines its status as an international financial hub. 

• Predictions include an immediate decline in freedom for Hong Kong citizens, economic consequences as foreign business leave due to tightened security laws, and a city more controlled and politically aligned entity with mainland China. 

Hong Kong has announced its intention to pass new national security laws, addressing concerns outlined in the Basic Law Article 23 Legislation. These proposed laws aim to prohibit treason, sabotage, sedition, theft of state secrets, and espionage while enhancing control over the city’s foreign political bodies and organisations. John Lee, Hong Kong's Chief Executive, suggests introducing these new security laws aim to resolve the national security issue that has persisted for 26 years, enabling a focused effort to improve the economy. These laws will build upon the national security law imposed by China in 2020, which responded to the 2019 pro-democracy protests. The 2020 law targeted collusion with foreign forces and allowed suspects to be tried on the mainland, illustrating the ongoing need for Hong Kong to work on Article 23.

While the government introduces these laws to address espionage and the activities of foreign agents, the subsequent crackdown may significantly restrict civil freedoms in the city and undermine its status as an international financial hub. The enactment of laws prohibiting treason, sabotage, and sedition raises concerns about potential implications on Hong Kong citizens’ civil liberties and freedoms.

The new security laws also pose potential challenges for foreign workers and businesses. The document outlines a list of state secrets in Hong Kong, encompassing economic, scientific, diplomatic, and social realms. This could lead to an exodus of foreign workers and businesses, placing strain on foreign operations within the city. The comprehensive scope of the laws may have far-reaching consequences, affecting both the local population and the international community engaged in Hong Kong.

Forecast

• Short-term:  Introducing new security laws targeting treason, sabotage, and sedition will almost certainly result in an immediate decline in civil freedoms and liberties for Hong Kong citizens. This may manifest through increased censorship and heightened surveillance measures. 

• Medium-term: The tightening grip of security laws, particularly in controlling foreign business, could trigger an exodus of foreign workers and businesses from Hong Kong. This migration may have significant economic consequences and jeopardise the city's standing as an international financial hub. 

• Long-term: The growing influence of Beijing and the implementation of restrictive laws will likely lead to a fundamental transformation of Hong Kong. Over time, the city will evolve into a more controlled and politically aligned entity with mainland China. This shift is expected to strain Hong Kong's relations with other countries and result in increased isolation on the global stage.