Lily Donahue | 18 June 2024

Summary

• Bagrat Galstanyan, archbishop and political-hopeful, led thousands-strong protests in Yerevan calling for the resignation of the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and an end to the Azerbaijan-involved demarcation process.

• The protests speak to a crack in the church-state divide in Armenia. 

• Galstanyan, currently making far-fetched grasps at Prime Ministership, is unlikely to harness ongoing political support. Though protests may continue, ousting current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will be an uphill battle with no likelihood of success. Though this may make for a more stable government, tensions will likely increase.

Led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, approximately 30,000 protestors gathered in Yerevan’s Republic Square on May 9th, calling for an end to the demarcation process currently underway in the country’s northeast. The demarcation process, sparked after the ending of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, has returned four villages in the Gazakh-Tavush region to Azerbaijan;  though the villages legally belong to Azerbaijan, they have been treated as Armenian territories since the fall of the Soviet Union. 

Varicose veined and bleeding through his bandages, Galstanyan led a 105-mile march through the city before the protest and demanded Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resignation. Allowing an hour for an answer—he would leave disappointed—Galstanyan was accused of attempting a coup, hidden only by spiritual motive. Members of the government decried the protests as Russian-backed, though there has not been evidence of Kremlin involvement. Galstanyan, who opposes normalisation with Azerbaijan, was unable to muster consistent levels of support for the following protest days. Still, over 11,000 people showed up for the second day, speaking to Pashinyan’s shaky backing. 

Galstanyan has objected to questions over his politicking, alleging that he remains uninvolved in political life. His concerns, he has claimed, are not about demarcation itself, but about how the process is handled. Such claims, however, appear largely baseless; Galstanyan has a stridently political past. In December 2023, Galstanyan exacerbated his anti-normalisation stance by advocating revenge to “restore the home that [we] have lost.” He has parlayed with Hamper Sassounian, notorious for assassinating the Turkish Consul General in Los Angeles in 1982. (Sassounian was paroled in 2021.) Despite his status as a dual national (Galstanyan holds Armenian-Canadian citizenship, and dual citizens are barred from running for Prime Minister), Galstanyan does not object to the possibility of political leadership. Indeed, he has courted it. Despite a brief disclaimer—“I don’t want to”—Galstanyan, in a public speech, pondered: “if the people want [it], and the Armenian Patriarch will bless [it], who am I to say no?” Chatters suggested that he has started a campaign have gained traction. Though Galstanyan may aspire to opposition leadership, Armenian law still forbids such a move and it is unlikely this will change. Moreover, the Armenian church’s governing body has not responded to Galstanyan’s imprudent requests to freeze his religious service. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Though Galstanyan will likely aim to continue protest action, it is highly unlikely he will manage to harness enough public–and governmental–support to oust Pashinyan. Still, tensions will remain high.

  • To delegitimise the protests, government officials will likely spin any future demands as Moscow-backed. Such attempts may inflame protestors, who view such statements as unwarranted smears. It is unlikely that Russia, overburdened with new Ukrainian offensives, will involve themselves in any large capacity. Should Galstanyan, who veers Russia-friendly, gain further traction, Moscow may seize the opportunity for a renewed friendship. 

  • Police brutality at the protest will increase distrust in the government. Pashinyan’s accusations towards the Armenian Church (the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin) will increase tensions between his government and religious life. 

  • Though the demarcation process is unlikely to be affected, regional tensions may increase. Demarcation, which would affect Armenia’s main Georgia-bound highway and the main natural gas pipeline, is viewed by critics as endangering Tavush citizens.