Ranson Lo | 20 June 2024

Summary

• Three individuals were arrested during the football match in Hong Kong between Hong Kong and Iran last week for not standing for the Chinese national anthem before the game.

• The arrests indicate a further deterioration of civil liberties and human rights in Hong Kong, which have been significantly curtailed since the imposition of the National Security Law in 2021, bolstered by the enactment of Article 23 of Basic Law in April this year.

• Political risks for individuals or businesses operating in the city are almost certain to increase further in the near future, especially in the coming weeks over the anniversary of the 2019 protests. As political freedom recedes, the semi-autonomous city’s standing as an international financial hub is further undermined.

Three individuals, aged between 18-31 were arrested during a football match played between Hong Kong and Iran’s national teams in Hong Kong last week on 6th April. They were accused by law enforcement of insulting the national anthem for “sitting down or turning their backs” when the Chinese national anthem was played before the match. The three remain under detention as of the time of reporting. The incident has sparked outrage alongside confusion, with online chatter suggesting the population is unsure of what constitutes, or is perceived, as perpetrating the National Security Law (NSL), due to its vague clauses and interpretations.

The highly visible arrests build on the government’s latest series of efforts to crack down on dissidents. After over three years of detention, on 30th May, 16 pro-democratic candidates in the cancelled 2020 Legislative Council (LegCo, parliament) election were trialled without a jury under the NSL after pleading not guilty to the charges. Of those, 14 were found guilty and the Ministry of Justice appealed the non-guilty verdict from the remaining two cases. An 81-year-old woman was also detained last week under Article 23 for chanting slogans to commemorate the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Massacre on 4th June 1989, illustrating a major shift from the previous policy in which the annual commemoration rallies were allowed until the implementation of the NSL in 2020.

The diminished political liberties have also been shown in the electoral system. All 90 seats in the current legislature are filled with pro-China candidates, after seeking approval to run by the government during the 2022 elections, as the government cited “national security reasons” and “to avoid the same mistakes that resulted in the 2019 riots”. Despite the officials’ repeated attempt to restate that Hong Kong remains the “free global financial hub with strong connections to mainland China” to bolster the city’s reputation, the crackdown and heightening of political risks, spearheaded by the NSL, has weakened both the population and foreign businesses’ confidence. Since 2021, over 162,000 have been granted the U.K.’s British National (Overseas) and Canada’s Permanent Residence Pathways visas, paving their way to emigrate to the above destinations with pathways to securing citizenships. Businesses have also relocated their headquarters elsewhere in the region (i.e. Singapore) amid a pessimistic forecast of the city’s situation from the loss of civil liberties and skilled workers (i.e. lawyers, teachers and medical professionals). This was highlighted by the downgrade of Moody’s credit rating of Hong Kong from stable to negative in December last year.

Forecast

• Short-term

• Political risk remains high for both local citizens and expats, as freedom of expression remains restricted. This situation is likely to further deteriorate in June during the anniversary of the 2019 protests. Individuals are recommended to be sensitive and mindful of the political situation, such as the use of language and symbols, to avoid being prosecuted.

• Long-term

  • Given both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments’ objectives to crack down further on activists and dissidents, as illustrated in the implementation of draconian national security laws and repeated speeches from leading political figures, Hong Kong’s reputation and standing as a free and fair global financial hub is highly likely to diminish.