23 May 2024

Summary

• On 19th May 2024, one helicopter out of a three-helicopter convoy carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, along with seven other individuals, disappeared amidst the misty and rainy weather at the Azerbaijan-Iran border. It was then identified that the helicopter crashed within Iranian territory after the Iranian president visited Azerbaijan to announce the launch of a new dam.

• Due to bad weather conditions, Iranian officials took more than 12 hours to find the helicopter crash site which was eventually located by a Turkish drone with thermal and night vision capabilities. Aside from Turkey, Russia also provided support alongside the European Union who opened up their satellites at the request of Iran to identify the site of the helicopter crash. 

• With the many different response teams, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), there are speculations that Israel and Azerbaijan had involvement in the incident. While the majority of sources believe this was an accident, it appears there could have been foul play by the Iranian regime itself.

• This incident is likely to change the Iranian trajectory, especially since it has cost Iran its image as a regional power. Alongside this, Iran will likely become more aggressive in the future, which has the potential to negatively impact stability and security within the international environment.

Context

On 19th May 2024, after the inauguration of a dam located on the Iranian and Azerbaijanian border, President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, along with others, were expected to travel to Tabriz in a three-helicopter convoy. Despite the harsh weather conditions, two helicopters were able to land at their next destination. However, the main helicopter (Bell 212) carrying Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian ended up missing along with seven other individuals. Rescue teams were called to the area to investigate and identify the helicopter that officials believed had a ‘hard landing’ due to the harsh weather conditions.

During the search for the helicopter, there was a lot of miscommunication and unconfirmed reports from both Iranian and foreign media outlets. For example, Israel Channel 12 was the first outlet to claim that the President had died despite no confirmation from Iranian sources. At the same time, the Iranian State TV announced that there were communications from a satellite phone of one of the crew members with the relevant medical teams (Iranian Red Cresent). However, this was later denied as the medical team announced that no communications were made from the helicopter. The situation became more confusing when Iranian government officials, including Ahmadi Nejad, who was one of Iran’s previous presidents, posted stories on their social media to announce their ‘condolences’ despite no official reports of any deaths. This confusion was furthered when the IRGC posted a ‘black flag’ on Telegram, typically symbolic of the mourning of someone’s death.

Despite a search-and-rescue effort deployed by multiple teams, including the IRGC, Iranian officials failed to identify the helicopter crash site. The site of the helicopter was then confirmed by a Turkish drone the next morning on the 20th of May. The drone was able to identify that the helicopter crashed into a mountain and indicated no signs of a ‘hard landing’. The Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called prayers on Sunday despite telling people not to worry and that there would be no disruptions. With such a significant event, many questions are left unanswered, including: How did the other two helicopters get to their destination? Why did it take more than 12 hours for Iran to find a helicopter linked to what many people consider the second most important person in Iran?

Accident?

Currently, there are three theories. Firstly, many believe that this was an accident due to the helicopter’s (Bell 212) old age dating from the 1979 Iranian revolution. The helicopter’s parts are no longer made, making it challenging for Iran to maintain and repair the helicopter, especially while they are under sanctions by multiple multilateral forums that include different countries. This, coupled with the extreme weather conditions, is believed by some to have led to the helicopter crash because it was unable to maintain its course. This could explain why it took a day to identify the site, as Iran was heavily underequipped due to its level of resources.

Assassination from external actors?

Secondly, there is also the theory that this could have been an assassination carried out by Israel. It is suggested the helicopter could have been tampered with at the border, especially as Israel has close ties with Azerbaijan. This has some weight to it as the United States (US) did hold prior talks with Iran in Oman in the previous week about preventing the escalation and expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict. This could have potentially frustrated Israel, which would have forced them to react aggressively, especially as this year, both Iran and Israel conducted attacks on each other’s soils for the first time. Moreover, since the International Criminal Court (ICC) has started to seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu. It can be assumed that this was a last-ditch attempt to reduce pressure on national security. However, Israel has denied any involvement. 

Assassination from within the Iranian state?

Lastly, there is also the theory that President Ebrahim Raisi was assassinated because of his reputation and position within Iranian domestic politics. This was because Raisi had a fearsome reputation and was labelled as the ‘Butcher of Tehran’ who was responsible for signing off the execution of many prisoners and civilians. More importantly, he was considered to be a favourite in replacing Khamenei as the next supreme leader. Subsequently, it is suspected that he was assassinated as he did not align with the ideas of the supreme leader. This is enforced by the fact that one of the only candidates left to replace Khamenei is now his son - Mojtaba Khamenei who was identified in leaked documents to have intervened in previous IRGC operations. This explains how government officials and institutions like the IRGC responded so quickly and gave condolences despite the many different miscommunications that occurred between the relevant Iranian departments. Not to mention that the nine individuals within the helicopter were strategically placed in only one of the three helicopters.

Forecast

While many reports see Raisi as a hardliner, he appeared to be more flexible and negotiable compared to the alternatives. Currently, the new interim President - Mohammad Mokhber and foreign minister - Bagheri Kani, are expected to be more aggressive than Raisi. More importantly, Mokhber was regarded as one of the close favourites of Khamenei, further adding to the idea that Raisi's death could have been an inside job. With most current officials being so close to Khamenei, presidential elections will likely be fixed, and perhaps the government will become more aligned with the supreme leader.

Furthermore, Iran will have to rebuild its reputation now as it failed to safely secure the second most important person within the country. This will be important concerning the ‘axis of resistance’ that require reassurance and consistency in operations. Therefore, it would be important to understand how Iran’s strategies will shift with the new leaders. However, questions remain surrounding why countries, including France and multilateral forums like NATO, responded in solidarity with Raisi’s death despite heavily sanctioning them.

Iran will, therefore, also need to use this incident as a lesson to strengthen its domestic resources despite sanctions. The reoccurrence of such events carries the risk of hurting their reputation, especially concerning their allies like Russia and China, who rely on them in conflicts like Ukraine. However, an aggressive approach from Iran will mean new advancements and perhaps even a new development phase for Iran.