Ranson Lo | 2 February 2024

Summary

• The Presidency, Vice Presidency and all 60 seats of the Legislative Assembly will be elected in the General Election in El Salvador on 4th February. Electoral violence or related conflicts are unlikely.

• President Nayib Bukele and his Nuevas Ideas party are expected to win a supermajority of over 40 seats due to the high popularity resulting from the successful crackdown on criminal gangs.  

• Despite the successful campaign in reducing gang violence, El Salvador has observed a recession of civil rights and freedoms in the country with arbitrary arrests and silencing of dissent. The recession is expected to continue if Bukele wins the election.   

El Salvador is holding the general election on 4th February, with the seat of the Presidency and Vice Presidency, alongside all 60 seats (cut from 84 seats in June 2023) in the country’s unicameral Legislative Assembly up for contest. Nayib Bukele, the incumbent President who came to power in June 2019, is anticipated to win the election with his Nuevas Ideas (NI) party given his strong popularity among the population for the crackdown on criminal gangs throughout the term. Bukele was originally barred from running for a second term by the country’s constitution, with the decision only to be overturned later by the Supreme Court in November last year.  

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 37.2 billion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 5,830 (2023)

• HDI: 0.675 (2021)

• Official currency: US Dollars & Bitcoin

Demography

• Population: 6.4 million (2023)

• Ethnic composition (2022)

  • 86.3% Mesitzo (Mixed White & Indigenous) & 12.7% White

• Religion (2022)

  • 84.1% Christian & 15.2% No religion

Major Political Parties

• Nuevas Ideas (NI)

  • Governing party led by President Nayib Bukele

  • Formed in 2018 as a big-tent anti-corruption party

  • In government since 2019

• Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA)

  • Opposition party led by Carlos García Saade

  • Right-wing party with conservative ideas and advocates for liberal economic system

  • In government during 1989-2009

• Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN)

  • Opposition party led by Óscar Ortiz

  • Left-wing party with socialist ideas

    • Former guerilla group formed in 1980 as a main combatant during the Salvadoran Civil War during 1979-1992 against the Salvadoran government (junta until 1982)

  • In government during 2009-2019

NI and Bukele’s high popularity is attributed to the government’s harsh crackdown on criminal gangs that have plagued the country since the end of the civil war in the 1990s. Dominated by the gangs of Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), Barrio 18-Surenos & Barrio 18-Revolucionarios, El Salvador has one of the highest homicide rates, peaking at 103 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015. The figure has dropped to 7.8 in 2022, largely thanks to Bukele’s draconian seven-phase Territorial Control Plan (PCT) initiated in 2019 and NI’s supermajority in the Legislative Assembly following the 2021 legislative election. Bukele’s policy and NI’s control over the parliament granted the government a free hand over policymaking, as Bukele announced and repeatedly extended the state of emergency and exception to provide security forces sweeping powers to search and detain suspects, intercept communications, and the suspension of civil rights and press reports on gang-related matters. The improvements in personal safety and physical security are among the most prioritised issues among the Salvadoran population, granting Bukele the ticket to remain in power.  

However, the increase in security comes at the cost of the recession of personal freedoms and democratic governance in the country. Bukele’s PCT, although proven effective in reducing organised crimes and violence and endorsed by neighbouring countries of Costa Rica and Honduras, has been accused of being exploited as a means for the government to silence dissent and curb the freedoms of expression and assembly. With multiple reports of arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial killings, over 75,000 individuals have been arrested as of January 2024, when the scheme was implemented, amounting to 1% of the country’s population. The backslide of democracy was also indicated by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional restriction of Presidents running for consecutive terms, which paved the way for Bukele to contest in the upcoming election with an almost certain chance to stay in power for at least five more years.  

On the other hand, Bukele’s economic policy and the adoption of Bitcoin as the country’s official currency increase the volatility of the Salvadoran economy. Although Bukele claimed that following his administration's purchase of Bitcoin with US$85.5 million in 2021, the portfolio has turned a profit of US$3.6 million, reports have shown that the government has spent almost as much for the adoption and promotion of the cryptocurrency to the general public. Should Bukele win the upcoming election, using Bitcoin as legal tender is expected to remain in place, as stated by Felix Ulloa, the incumbent Vice President. Bitcoin, alongside other cryptocurrencies, although becoming increasingly prevalent for transactions across the globe, has been significantly volatile at times compared to the traditional fiat currency created by national governments, which has raised doubts among economists and proven detrimental for the country to reach a deal over aid packages with the IMF (International Monetary Fund).  

Forecast

• NI and Bukele are almost certain to win the election, as Bukele’s approval rate has been over 70% in recent months, according to numerous polls. NI is also very likely to attain a supermajority in the Legislative Assembly.  

• As Bukele is likely to retain his signature hard-handed approach in repressing criminal gangs, the democratic backslide of the country is expected to continue from the arbitrary arrests and extensions of the state of exception.  

• Bukele’s policy on crackdown on gangs is likely to be adopted by neighbouring states in Latin America, especially in Ecuador, which has recently observed an uptick of gang violence that has seen President Daniel Noboa declaring the state of exception on 9th January and listed 22 gangs as terrorist groups.