31 January 2024

Summary

• The drone attack shows the growing capability and willingness of Iran's militias to target US bases and troops with drones. 

• Persistent drone strikes could force changes to the US regional military posture and undermine operations as they want to protect their regional partners. 

• Kinetic US response risks escalation with Iran and militias, but restraint could embolden further attacks. 

On 19th January, 2024, a drone strike targeted a US military base known as Tower 22 near Jordan's border with Syria, killing 3 US soldiers and injuring many others of approximately more than 40 soldiers. This is the first time that a strike has killed US troops in the region since Hamas's 7th of October attack on Israel. This is critical as the Pentagon accuses Iran of having their ‘fingerprints’ on the attack especially since an Iranian militant group has taken responsibility for it. Not to mention that the US has previously considered withdrawing from Iraq and Syria. 

The attack demonstrates how Iran’s militias are growing in their capabilities and willingness to target US bases and personnel. Moreover, drone strikes allow them to attack with precision while avoiding attribution. If drone strikes continue, they could undermine US operations and partnerships in the region. However, the US will also likely enhance base defence and surveillance to counter this threat. Yet, A kinetic response risks escalation, especially with Iranian militias already vowing reprisals for recent Israeli strikes. Therefore, the US can respond by either continuing to strike Iran-allied bases and commanders out of the country or they can initiate a strike against Iran.  

Forecast

• Short-term: The US will boost security and surveillance at the bases in the region to prevent similar attacks. But militias may still attempt occasional strikes. 

• Medium-term: If defences prove inadequate, the risk of casualties and disruption of US operations will grow. This could force monitoring activities or even repositioning of US troops, with the risk of escalation into a regional conflict. 

• Long-term: Persistent drone attacks could make the US presence unsustainable. But an withdrawal would enable increases in Iranian and Russian influence in the region and inspire more direct attacks on US allies like Israel.