Ranson Lo | 10 June 2024

Summary

• China launched the geostationary satellite (GEOS) in December 2023, which enables continued military reconnaissance and surveillance, including the detection of stealth aircraft.

• Despite China’s claims that the GEOS would be limited to civilian use, China is known for using dual-use technology for military use discretely, raising security concerns amid the emerging US-China rivalry, as space emerges as one of the numerous theatres for competition.

• Given China’s assertive foreign policy and geopolitical ambitions under President Xi Jinping, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will almost certainly further develop space defence and exploration capabilities for an upper hand against its American rival.

China launched Yaogan-41 (遙感41號) last December, a geostationary satellite. GEOS operates at over 36,000 km altitude, around 12 times over the average low Earth orbit (LEO), with its imagery covering around half of the Earth’s surface. Although GEOS are equipped with civilian-use capacities for climate prediction and disaster prevention, the high-altitude satellite is primarily used by the military for surveillance and data collection. Despite the Chinese authorities’ claim of civilian use, the dual-use equipment is speculated to be used by the People’s Liberation Army, China’s armed forces, to monitor both ground and maritime military movements in the Indo-Pacific region, as GEOS can map stealth aircraft designed to operate from any detection through radar or radio frequency.

Although China is not the only country with GEOS, it is the only state with high-resolution GEOS, with Ludi Tance-4 equipped with synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) capabilities, allowing the controllers to see through clouds and at night. The GEOS, alongside other rocket launches and space missions under the China National Space Administration, marks China’s increasingly assertive geopolitical and space policies since President Xi Jinping assumed office in 2012. China has significantly expanded its footprint, with 11 space facilities across five Latin American countries, and four permanent or temporary stations in Antarctica. Beijing’s presence was also found in the Arctic region until the late 2010s, with the Swedish Space Corporation refusing to extend their license in 2020 and five rejected bids to build bases or airports in Scandinavia between 2016 and 2019 due to national security concerns.

Given the emerging geopolitical interests in space, it is likely to emerge as a new dimension of competition between the US, EU, and China-led spheres. The area is increasingly becoming a priority, marked by US President Donald Trump’s founding of the Space Force in 2019. Alongside security concerns, the space race and debates over space sovereignty are also expected, to focus on the emerging notion of space as a solution to obtaining critical minerals through asteroid mining. This nascent space excavation industry could be highly lucrative, with estimates suggesting between USD 25 to 50 billion for each asteroid.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • China is expected to further develop its space capabilities through state-sponsored R&D, including dual-use satellites and exploration capacities to further strategic interests by projecting military control over the Indo-Pacific region amid escalating US-China rivalry.

• Long-term

• The outer space will likely emerge as a new theatre of contention between the Western countries and the alliance between China and Russia, especially over the potential mining of asteroids for critical minerals to ease the strain on the supply chain and the inherent profitability of the industry.

• Potential sovereignty issues over the possession of space materials and land rights will likely emerge with the advancement of space exploration capabilities, as the Outer Space Treaty in 1967 and the Moon Agreement in 1979 remain outdated and the latter not signed by the US, China or Russia.