Ranson Lo | 16 September 2024

Summary

• The Pacific Policing Initiative (PPI), led by Australia and collaborated with Pacific island nations, was established in late August 2024 during the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga.

• PPI, a multinational policing group for major events, aims to safeguard maritime security by improving collaboration and policing in the Pacific to tackle drug trafficking and illegal fishing.

• PPI will likely increase collaboration between the Pacific countries and Australia, improve the islands’ governance resilience, and strengthen Australia’s reputation and influence in the region amid rising Chinese presence and ambitions.

The Pacific Policing Initiative (PPI), a multinational policing group including multiple Pacific nations, was established during the annual Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) held in August 2024 in Tonga. PPI is estimated to cost AUD 400m (USD 270m), which will be primarily funded by Australia. The programme aims to improve security and policing collaboration between the Pacific nations to strengthen resilience to national emergencies and social unrest amid climate change and spikes in drug trafficking and illegal fishing. By leveraging Australian resources and capabilities, the collaboration could be crucial in improving resilience and safeguarding maritime security, as the Pacific nations would otherwise struggle from the lack of funding and experience. The establishment of PPI reinstates the prioritisation of the Pacific in Australia’s foreign policy with its long-running development assistance and aid programme, including the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific and the post-Covid Pacific Regional Development Partnership Plan.

Although the PPI did not specify the wider geopolitical backdrop, it was widely perceived as Australia’s bid to reassert its role as the regional leader amid increasing Chinese influence and ambitions in the Pacific. Underlined by the emerging Australia-China rivalry, which has been exacerbated since the COVID-19 pandemic that saw the imposition of trade embargoes and immigration restrictions, the PPI is seen as an initiative to counter China’s recent security pact with obscure terms allowing Chinese police to station and operate in the Solomon Islands and Kiribati. PPI, if implemented effectively, could improve the cohesion and collaboration in the region while strengthening transparency and democratic governance of the Pacific nations, as opposed to the example of the Solomon Islands under Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who was accused of corruption and embezzlement from the deals with China.

The Australia-China rivalry has also provided greater opportunities for the Pacific nations and elevated the region’s geopolitical significance despite being some of the smallest countries. Under the renewed geopolitical contention, the Pacific nations will likely be presented with counter and improved offers of development assistance from both sides, providing these nations with the opportunities to bolster their economies and strengthen their preparations amid the escalating climate challenges, including rising sea levels and stronger tropical storms.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • PPI will likely improve Australia’s standing in the Pacific while improving the governance and resilience of the island nations, especially during times of crises, from quelling civil unrest to relieving natural disasters.

  • Talks over trade deals and regional security agreements are expected to increase from both China and Australia, as demonstrated by the PPI and China’s security pact with the Solomon Islands in 2023.

  • China will likely attempt to increase its presence in the Pacific by further strengthening ties with friendly nations, including the Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Vanuatu.

• Long-term

  • The Pacific nations will almost certainly remain a new point of contention between China and the US-Australian alliance. Despite the ongoing tensions, the geopolitical rivalry could provide and improve foreign aid and investment opportunities from the two blocs to sway opinions and favours, potentially providing more assistance for the islands to combat climate change.