Marina Gruzer | 6 June 2024

Summary

• Central Asia is a region with increasing geopolitical prominence due to its abundant reserves of raw materials, such as uranium, lithium  and critical minerals, and due to its geographic importance within the emerging ‘Middle Corridor’ route which connects Europe to China while circumventing Russia. 

• In response to the UK’s Foreign Affairs Committee’s 2023 report “Countries at crossroad: UK engagement in Central Asia”, Foreign Secretary David Cameron conducted an official visit to Central Asia and Mongolia. In this historic visit, Cameron was the first British Foreign Secretary ever to visit Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan and the first to Uzbekistan since 1997. 

• Aiming to increase soft power influence, the Foreign Secretary announced a £50 million (USD 63.8 million) investment to strengthen UK-Central Asian trade relations, a doubling of Chevening scholarship funding and a push to develop English language skills in the region. 

In April 2024, the UK’s Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, conducted a five-day tour of Central Asia and Mongolia marking a “new era” of British diplomacy within the region. The official visit aimed to deepen the UK’s role as a long-term regional partner, promote business opportunities with British firms and address Russian sanction circumvention. While Cameron emphasised that the UK wishes to present broader options for Central Asian multi-vector foreign policy and does not aim to out-compete Sino-Russian regional influence, the official visit has established policies that would bolster British soft power capacity. 

Other Western nations have also been drawn to Central Asia as seen in extensive European Union investment into Tajikistan’s hydroelectric Rogun Dam Project and the United States-led Critical Mineral Dialogue initiative with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Renewed British engagement could be a result of post-Brexit isolation and the growing need to compete with European policies. 

The UK’s Foreign Affairs Committee’s 2023 report describes engagement with Central Asia as a ‘geopolitical imperative’. With surging demand for critical minerals and metals in the energy sector, Central Asia’s geopolitical role is increasingly prominent. The region has been found to hold ‘38.6%’ of global manganese, 20% of lead and 12.6% of zinc ore reserves. Additionally, Kazakhstan has the second largest uranium reserves globally, making it central in the development of nuclear energy. During Cameron’s visit, countries such as Mongolia, with large deposits of iron, copper, gold and other minerals, signed Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) on critical minerals which promotes trade and expertise sharing regarding these resources. Furthermore, Central Asia’s geographic location as part of the Middle Corridor between Europe and China elevates the region’s role in global trade linkages. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Western economic sanctions, the cargo transit volume has increased by over 80% as of 2023. Therefore, it is important to consider Central Asia’s developing role in both the energy sectors and trade.

Growing British engagement with the region also reflects the UK’s soft power goals within broader aims to counterbalance Russian regional dominance. Cameron held discussions on sanction circumvention following cases of dual-use goods being exported to Russia from Kazakhstan. While it is unclear whether these discussions yielded new commitments from the region that Britain hoped for, this demonstrates the UK’s will to establish an influential presence in the pursuit of wider foreign policy goals. Similar initiatives that arose from Cameron’s visit included a GBP 50 million (USD 63.8 million) investment to support the ‘sovereignty and independence’ of Central Asian states as well as the doubling of funding for Chevening Scholarships for students wishing to attend British universities.     

Additionally, the renewed engagement also provides significant opportunities for both British firms and Central Asian economic development. Kazakhstan, accounting for over 60% of the regional gross domestic product (GDP), receives the most significant British investment with the UK being among its top ten foreign investment partners. In April, Kazakhstan and the UK signed a Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which will reinforce bilateral trade relations to support British firms, such as AstraZeneca and Shell, operating in Kazakhstan. The UK has also increased development support in countries like Tajikistan via development partnerships in which Britain will collaborate with the Tajik Government in poverty reduction, regional stability and the encouragement of private firm investment. Hence, Britain is attempting to consolidate an economic partnership to strengthen its presence in a geopolitically significant region.

Alternatively, Central Asia’s partnerships with China and Russia could limit the efficacy of British initiatives. China maintains its role as the main economic partner via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has enhanced infrastructural development and interconnectivity, and Russia maintains a degree of political influence. Some Western analysts suggest that Central Asia’s openness to Cameron’s visit reflects a willingness to align more with Western partners. However, this is unlikely due to the limited scale of Western policies such as the 2023 UK-Central Asia regional development partnership in comparison to China’s BRI. Central Asian multi-vector foreign policy is likely to embrace opportunities posed by Britain’s engagement but will still maintain its close relationships with large regional powers. 

Forecast

• Short-term 

  • The new MOUs on critical minerals and Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreements are likely to improve UK business opportunities and access to raw materials in Central Asia while encouraging UK-Central Asian interconnectivity and expanding the region’s multi-vector foreign policy flexibility. 

• Medium-term 

  • The GBP 50 million (USD 63.8 million) investment to support the ‘sovereignty and independence’ of Central Asian states, the doubling of Chevening Scholarship funding and the enhancing focus on improving English language learning opportunities in the region is likely to increase British regional influence. 

• Long-term

  • However, the UK is unlikely to become a highly significant partner in the region as its economic and security initiatives in Central Asia lack the scale and impact to outcompete Chinese and Russian engagement. For example, the UK’s economic involvement is less impactful for Central Asian economic development in comparison to China’s BRI.