Mikaela DesLauriers | 8 July 2024

Summary

• Facing pressing political pressure, on 11th June 2024 President Biden issued an Executive Order that suspended access to asylum for migrants crossing the United States’ Southern Border.

• Effective at 12:01 am on 12th June 2024, President Biden’s actions represent one of the most restrictive approaches to the Southern border by a Democratic President in modern times.

• The Executive Order relates to the number of crossings at the South-West border. Under this policy, the order would be lifted when daily ‘illegal’ crossings fall below 1500 for a seven-day period. There would then be a 14-day waiting period, during which, if the number of crossings breaches the 2500 ‘emergency’ threshold, the Executive Order would be reinstated. 

President Biden’s Executive Order temporarily closing the United States’ southern border to asylum seekers marks a significant disruption in American immigration policy, with broad political and logistical implications. Announced amid surging border crossings and rising voter concerns, this measure aims to reduce the number of migrants entering the US without authorisation by imposing stringent restrictions on asylum eligibility. The Executive Order offers exemptions to migrants who have scheduled an appointment to seek asylum using a smartphone app. Reports from the New York Times have stated that even those with pre-scheduled appointments have been turned away, leading to confusion and shock among those affected.

Protection in the form of asylum has been the international norm in response to persecution-driven displacement since the 1950s. Historically, the US has allowed individuals crossing the border to declare asylum and remain in the country while awaiting their determination hearing. Under the new policy, those seeking international protection will no longer have the right to stay in the US during this interim period. Despite representing a major disruption to American immigration policies, the practicalities of implementing Biden’s Executive Order remain uncertain. Immigration policy changes require substantial resources, including immigration officers and transportation means, which the Executive Order does not currently provide.

On the ground, there will be a “wait and see period” while policymakers and border control officers navigate the implementation of Biden’s actions. Traditionally, migration policies have been slow to implement and rarely yield rapid results. Logistical hurdles, such as the need for extensive coordination and resources across one of the world’s longest borders, raise doubts about policy efficacy. Despite lacking the necessary financial resources, asylum seekers are likely to continue to be detained (USD208 daily per detainee) in the US, awaiting determination or deportation (USD10,854 per migrant). The Executive Order is also highly likely to be contested on its legality, with the American Civil Liberties Union declaring that they intend to challenge it in the Courts.

Politically, the Executive Order is a response to mounting pressure from voters concerned about migrant influxes, particularly as the number of daily crossings at the Southern border continues to surpass 3,000. With immigration as a pivotal issue for the 2024 Presidential election, the Biden administration seeks to demonstrate decisive border enforcement. While moderate Democrats praise Biden’s actions as a necessary measure to restore order at the Southern border, progressive Democrats criticise it, drawing parallels to Trump-era policies and accusing the current President of abandoning long-held American values. This divide within the Democratic Party presents a political risk for the Democratic candidate, highlighting the complicated and contentious nature of American immigration policy, which Biden must navigate, to secure a second term.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Despite concerns about implementation and dividing the Democratic party, it is highly unlikely that restrictions on asylum will be lifted due to the surge in crossings during the Biden administration. During this "wait and see" period, some migrants will likely be deported (USD10,854 per migrant), while others will remain in detention facilities (USD208 daily per detainee, or USD8.43 million per day). While it is likely that the President’s Executive Order will be blocked by the Courts on its legality and human rights violations, families surrendering to immigration official’s to launch their protection applications will likely be among those most affected by Biden’s actions.

• Medium to long-term 

  • Biden’s Executive Order is highly unlikely to effectively deter migrants fleeing persecution, as successful crossings and asylum claims will still occur and influence future attempts. The strongest deterrent likely remains the apprehension rates by Mexican authorities. With the Order likely to face court challenges, it appears to be more about optics in a contested election year, as immigration, alongside inflation and the Israel-Palestine conflict, will be a top concern for voters in November 2024, indicating a continued rightward shift in US immigration policies.