Jakub Gazda | 17 June 2024

Summary

• After eight months of conflict in the Gaza Strip, US President Joe Biden unveiled a three-step peace plan which is said to have the support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and possibly Hamas leadership.

• Suppose the plan is to be accepted and adopted by both sides of the current conflict. In that case, the political and security implications are vast, including the collapse of Netanyahu’s tenure as leader of Israel and a power reshuffle in Gaza.

• Although hopes are high for the implementation of the peace plan, opposition from Netanyahu's cabinet may be enough to disincentivise its adoption on both sides.

The  Gaza conflict has been ongoing since the “October 7th” (2023) attack by Hamas militants on Israeli settlements bordering the Palestinian territory, with the Gaza Health Authority reporting scores of civilian casualties at the hands of  Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in an attempt to retrieve hostages and eliminate Hamas. The unrelenting pressure of the IDF, especially after the advance on the city of Rafah and the scope of damage to infrastructure, has resulted in Israel’s staunchest ally, the United States, headed by the Biden administration, giving in to inter-party pressure, ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. This is alongside proposing a peace plan which has the possibility of finally ending the conflict. 

In short, the three-step peace plan, guaranteed by Qatar, Egypt and the US, is said to begin with a six-week ceasefire accompanied by the withdrawal of IDF forces from populated areas of Gaza, and a quid-pro-quo exchange of hostages for prisoners, humanitarian aid and continued IDF withdrawals. Subsequently, the plan proposes a long-term cessation of hostilities and a three to five-year reconstruction period of the Gaza Strip under the supervision of the agreement guarantors and the United Nations.

Primarily because it is the first true attempt at ending the almost year of hostilities, the plan has been met positively by an array of actors, including support from the UN Secretary-General and the entirety of the European Union. This is while support and guarantees from states friendly to Hamas, most notably Qatar, signal an international consensus. Furthermore, immediate reactions by the two belligerent parties have signalled support for the proposed peace process, with reports stating Hamas leadership viewed the proposal “positively”. At the same time, the leader of Israel’s opposition, Yair Lapid,  has supported Netanyahu’s government in pursuing plans in the face of inter-coalition dissent.

Nonetheless, almost two weeks after Biden's initial announcement, points of contention emerged, primarily on the Israeli coalition's side. Far-right ministers Smotrich and Gvir are threatening to topple Netanyahu’s government if he accepts the peace plan, and  Hamas officials have declared their doubts concerning Israel's desire for a peaceful resolution.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • It has been almost two weeks since President Biden announced the peace plan and so far, neither side has declared its definitive support. Therefore, within the next week, it is highly unlikely that the peace plan will be universally adopted.

• Medium-term

  • If the Gaza conflict is to continue at its current pace and nature, we are likely to see in the coming months more public pressure put on both Israeli and Hamas leadership.  This will most likely be upon the United States and foreign partners (including  Qatar), to decide on President Biden’s proposal.

• Long-term

  • Despite the difficulty of providing a long-term forecast due to the impacts of the political infighting within Israel, the American Presidential elections campaign and its results, and Hamas’ fighting capacity all are variables with unknown outcomes. However, all are critical to the nature of the current conflict.