Abigail Darwish | 29 August 2024

Summary

• The AI revolution has exacerbated existing divisions between the Global South and the Global North.

• Recent initiatives in the Global South, in particular Latin America, have presented opportunities for regional players to ameliorate this divide.

• Both Brazil and Argentina have introduced strategies to help advance their AI capabilities domestically, and also to situate them as viable global competitors in the AI arena. 

AI in Latin America: Overview

Once at the periphery of policy attention and national strategy, in the last decade artificial intelligence (AI) has assumed a central role in the spheres of national security and investment. Amongst the numerous benefits of AI are opportunities to advance education, healthcare, economic growth, and production. Most significantly, it could also provide tools to alter the growth and development trajectories of countries and regions across the world. 

At the same time, however, AI’s rapid proliferation has exacerbated pre-existing divisions between the Global North and the Global South. Slower adoption rates of AI in the Latin American region, for instance, has likewise stumped the trajectory of GDP growth compared to its neighbours in North America. Whereas Latin America’s GDP is forecasted to gain an additional 5.4% (US$ 0.5 trillion) by 2030, North America is expected to gain 14.5% growth by the same year. In spite of the AI stagnation in the region, in recent months two of Latin America’s leading economies, Brazil and Argentina, have advanced policies that could alter the course of AI development regionally, or at the very least nationally. 

Brazil

At present Brazil has the largest economy in Latin America and is the primary investor in AI in the region, with its private sector rapidly incorporating AI across health, agriculture, finance and banking. On 30 July, Brazil’s government announced a $4.07 billion AI investment plan designed to advance the country’s technological infrastructure and stimulate innovation in particular sectors across a four-year period. This concerns the allocation of significant funding to its Research and Development sector; development of Portuguese-language AI models; adoption of AI into its agricultural, health, and manufacturing industries; and investment in both education and training programs aimed at forging a skilled workforce that is proficient in AI technologies. 

What distinguishes Brazil’s policy from other regional actors, however, is its overriding strategic objective, especially in the global AI arena. The policy marks an isolationist outlook, favouring its “national sovereignty” over the importation of or reliance on AI tools from other countries. Brazil’s President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, elaborated on this goal, stating that “instead of waiting for AI to come from China, the US, South Korea, Japan, why not have our own?” This is also in spite of the fact that Brazil is a member of the China-led intergovernmental organisation, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which has previously sought to collaborate on tech innovation, including AI. By extension, Brazil’s new AI policy reflects its desire to achieve both technological autonomy and greater competitive edge in the global tech arena. 

Argentina 

Argentina’s investment in AI has traditionally targeted the agricultural, financial, and human resources sectors of the country. Similar to Brazil, Argentina’s government intends to improve its AI capabilities and promote itself as a global competitor, albeit with a different approach. Recently, on 11 June, President Javier Milei’s government announced its plan to make Argentina “the world’s fourth AI hub” through a strategy of hands-off regulation. This policy of low regulation would serve to attract foreign investment into the country, not only amidst Argentina's economic crisis and significant inflation rate, in which foreign investment would help bolster the economy, but also at a time when there are increasing regulations on AI in Europe and the US. The government’s libertarian policy would thus encourage leading tech companies such as Meta, OpenAI, Apple, and Google to invest in Argentina. 

Cross-Analysis

Curiously, where both Brazil and Argentina are seeking greater competitive edge in the global AI arena, their strategies are markedly different. Considering both countries’ radically different political dispositions and economic climates, it is understandable why Brazil’s recent AI policy is more inward-looking, relying on its own national capabilities, whereas Argentina’s strategy relies on foreign investment. For instance, where Argentina is seeking investment from OpenAI, Brazil’s policy seeks to create its own Portuguese-language AI models. The two nations’ diverging stances on AI regulation has certainly been amplified as of late with Brazil's National Data Protection Authority issuing a preliminary ban on Meta's use of personal data of users, for example. 

It is also worth framing these policies in wider trends in Latin America’s AI development. In the region it is commonplace to find policies to be disregarded or scrapped following administration changes. One recent example has been in December 2023, where Milei’s government dissolved Argentina’s Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation initiative that had been formed in 2007 under the previous administration. Brazil’s four-year time frame for its new policy almost avoids this issue, since the duration of the country’s presidential term is four years, one can expect meaningful investment in the AI sector to take place within that time period, at least for the three remaining years of Lula’s presidency. Conversely, Milei’s policy reflects that of a libertarian government, thus its hands-off approach to AI regulation will only foreseeably be ensured for the three remaining years under Milei, unless he is reelected. Policy patterns in the region–particularly their susceptibility to change under new governments–can indicate how fruitful Brazil and Argentina’s AI strategies will be in the short- and long-term.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • It is quite likely that Brazil will implement more regulations on foreign tech companies, such as Meta.

  • It is most likely that Argentina will experience an increase in foreign investment, especially if tighter regulations on AI continue to proliferate in the Global North.

• Long-Term

  • It is very likely that Brazil will continue to be Latin America’s primary investor in AI technologies. 

  • It is most likely that Brazil’s policy will be more successful in promoting the country as a key player in the global AI arena, given the strategic time-frame of its policy (2024-2028) and its more favourable economic climate, compared to that of Argentina’s.