Jeanne-Mây Desurmont | 1 October 2024

Summary

• Abkhazia, a region internationally recognised as part of Georgia, has been under Russian control since 2008. Since early 2024, satellite imagery shows Russia is building a new naval base in Ochamchire, shifting its strategic importance in the Black Sea.

• This naval base aims to provide a safe harbour for Russian ships against Ukrainian strikes and simultaneously limit Ukraine's options in the Black Sea.

• The naval base also heightens security risks for Georgia and Black Sea nations, enabling Russia to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus. 

The region of Abkhazia is located in the Caucasus in northwestern Georgia. While it is internationally recognised as a part of Georgia, separatist forces have claimed its independence since 1992 and has been controlled by Russia since 2008 following the Russo-Georgian war. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Georgia has been a key flashpoint for Russia’s agenda and European security concerns. Alongside political interference, recent satellite imagery illustrated the construction of a new Russian naval base at Ochamchire in Abkhazia. The base has been confirmed by Abkhazia’s de facto leader, Aslan Bzhania. 

Bellingcat has revealed new extensions to the coal terminal and FSB Coast Guard detachment. Since early 2024, imagery shows new buildings and concrete foundations, cleared areas surrounded by fences and surface preparation in the forest. A Russian Navy ship has also been observed in Abkhazia in July. These indicators demonstrate the intention to expand the small harbour into a permanent seaport for Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Ultimately, the progressive relocation of the Russian navy from Sevastopol illustrates a shift in the balance of power in the Black Sea. The military control and dominance of this maritime space have always been important for the Kremlin, yet prevented by Ukraine’s effective counters against the Russian Black Sea fleet by using uncrewed vessels and drones. 

As a result, the new base in Abkhazia is strategically important for Russia. Indeed, Abkhazia can provide a safe haven for the Russian vessels as they will be in Georgian territorial waters, thus complicating potential Ukrainian strikes. Beyond the war in Ukraine, the naval base in Abkhazia also undermined the Georgian project of Anaklia, a deep sea port designed to facilitate the exchanges between Asia and Europe to bypass the Russian land route. In the long term, Russia can influence this Eurasian trade route through the naval base in Ochamchire while paralysing the Georgian supply chains. 

The construction of a naval base in Abkhazia is an additional security risk for Georgia and also the other states of the Black Sea. Putin is continuously putting pressure on Tbilisi by occupying Abkhazia and South Ossetia and by building and funding different military bases. While the Georgian government is trying to balance between supporting Ukraine and not provoking Russia, the protests in spring have shown the population’s anti-Russian feelings. The upcoming Georgian parliamentary elections will then determine the path of Georgian foreign policy, against a backdrop of Russian foreign interference and a Georgian dream to enter the EU.

Forecast

• Short to Medium-Term

  • The current military development in Georgia reveals that Putin is investing in different resources abroad and underscores the determination to continue the war against Ukraine on the Black Sea front. Despite Georgia’s lack of economic and military resources, this presents Tbilisi with the opportunity to negotiate security agreements with Black Sea nations due to increased Russian threats. 

• Long-Term

  • Beyond the Russia-Ukraine War, a naval base in Abkhazia can help Russia influence the trade flows in the region while supplementing the planned routes through Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. This corridor can strengthen the Russian presence in the South Caucasus and counter the current Chinese presence in the region in the longer term.

  • The Russian military presence in Georgia can influence the upcoming elections, which will determine the future of Georgian foreign policy with geo-political implications for the broader region. Despite the population’s European dream, it is very likely that Russia can use Abkhazia to pressure Georgia’s government to either side with the Kremlin or to be dragged into the current war with Ukraine.