Jakub Gazda | 07 August 2024

Summary

• The 28th July 2024 Presidential Elections in Venezuela have, despite unfavourable polling, which put the opposition candidate González  at 70% of the popular vote, seen the re-election of the incumbent president Nicolas Maduro.

• In reaction to the unprecedented victory of Mauduro, large sections of Venezuela’s society have turned to civil disorder to protest the contested victory, which is being violently suppressed by the security apparatus of the state.

• The electoral results have confirmed the doubts of international observers about Venezuela’s political system's democratic backsliding under Maduro’s tenure.

• Both the Venezuelan opposition and foreign states and organisations have refused to recognise Maduro’s win, with the U.S.and a series of South American states congratulating the opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia on his victory.

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 102.33 Billion (2024)

• GDP per capita: USD 3,870  (2024)

• HDI: 0.699 (2022)

• Official Currency: Venezuelan bolívar

Demography

• Population: 31,250,306 (2024)

• Ethnic Composition: 51% mestizo (mixed white and indigenous); Europeans and Arabs 43%, Africans 3.6%, Amerindian people 2%, other 1.2% (2011)

• Religion: Roman Catholic 48.1%, Protestant 31.6% (Evangelical 31.4%, Adventist 0.2%), Jehovah's Witness 1.4%, African American/umbanda 0.7%, other 0.1%, believer 3.5%, agnostic 0.1%, atheist, 0.4%, none 13.6%, unspecified 0.6% (2023)

Candidates

Nicolás Maduro

Maduro, the incumbent President and the leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) founded by Hugo Chavez, sought a third term as president. Unlike his predecessor and architect of today’s Venezuela, Maduro’s term in power as leader of the country has been riddled with political and social turmoil, largely caused by severe economic shocks the country has suffered during the last decade and a half. Consequently,  the previously relatively liberal political system has been transformed into an authoritarian state, with opposition leaders being barred from participation in the 2018 presidential elections, resulting in prominent political leaders such as the European Union, the United States and the Organisation of American States rejecting the results of the elections. This resulted in the increased isolation of Venezuela’s increased alignment with authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China and Iran. Additionally, the Maduro presidency, as a result of economic hardships and increased state repression, has overseen the largest emigration wave in the country’s history, with over seven million Venezuelans leaving the country, primarily via Columbia.

Maduro’s campaign strategy prior to the election had primarily focused on traditional class affiliation tactics, utilising his past profession as a bus driver to depict himself as a candidate of the ordinary working class and standard bearer of  Chavez’ legacy, while branding his opponent as a pliant puppet of the rich elite.

Edmundo González Urrutia

González is a former professional diplomat, who had served in Venezuela’s diplomatic service both prior and during the reign of Hugo Chavez. Prior to his candidacy, González’s political career was closely linked to his previous profession, serving in between 2013-2015 as the international representative of the Venezuelan opposition’s political alliance, the Democratic Unity Roundtable. However his own candidacy had not been a straightforward affair. On the contrary, González was a replacement candidate for the Unitary Platform (previously Democratic Unity Roundtable) after its leader María Corina Machado and her alternate, Corina Yoris were barred outright from running and faced complications in filing their candidacy, respectively.

Nonetheless as the main opposition candidate in the July elections, González ran a campaign focused on national unity, recovery and transition, aimed at bringing in votes from both the traditional opposition electorate as well as the left-wing traditionally Maduro-loyal “Chavistas” electorate.

Pre-election doubts

Despite polling prior to the election indicating a landslide victory for González, with July polling putting Gonzales at 71% of the vote while Maduro is scraping by at merely 12%, the past experience during the 2018 election outside observers indicated that the Maduro would abuse its influence over state institutions to prevent such a defeat from taking place. With the reversal of the election took a series of possible routes, ranging from voter intimidation tactics by the Security Services and PSUV paramilitaries (the Revolutionary Guard), outright voter fraud in polling stations, or the possibility of the Venezuelan Electoral Council (which had recently been stacked by Maduro loyalists) disputing results which may confirm an opposition victory.

Course of the election and its aftermath

As expected, the Venezuelan electoral authority declared Maduro the winner on 29th August, securing 51% of the vote compared to 46% for González. Shortly after their publication the Venezuelan opposition rejected the results, claiming its parallel tally of the votes put González at 67% of the vote. As of the time of writing this article, ballot fraud by the regime is suspected to falsify the election.

Following the announcement of Maduro’s victory Venezuela has been embroiled in violent protests, with supporters of the opposition candidate refusing to accept the declared result. As has been the case in prior cases of civil disobedience in the country, Venezuelan police and armed forces have been attempting to suppress the protests with violence , with 11 people being killed and over  1000 detained, as the numbers are expected to increase further..

The international reaction to the elections has been mixed so far. Traditional allies of the Venezuelan leader, China, Iran, Russia and Cuba congratulated Maduro, while long-term critics, including the E.U. and the U.S. have rejected the results and called upon Venezuelan authorities to publish the ballots to confirm Maduro’s victory. Furthermore, reactions across South America have also varied. While a section of South American states, including Argentina Costa Rica, Ecuador, Panama and Uruguay have joined the U.S. in recognising González as the winner, other states such as, Mexico, Columbia and Brazil, while requesting greater transparency have not yet condemned the human rights violation during the ensuing government crack-down, nor declared the results fraudulent. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • As things stand at the moment, despite international condemnation of both the election results and the treatment of opposition protesters, it is highly unlikely Maduro will relinquish power to González with the continued backing of the security services. 

• Medium-term

  • In the upcoming months, it is likely we will observe increased authoritarian centralisation of power and prosecution of both political and civil opposition, including the imprisonment or forced exile of leading opposition figures. However, the fate of González remains uncertain due to his widespread support, as his persecution may cause increased civil upheaval.

• Long-term

  • With the 2024 elections likely cementing Venezuela as an authoritarian state it is likely that the states which have denounced the the electoral results will increase the scope of already existing economic sanctions, likely causing further economic depression, translating in even more Venezuealan’s leaving the country for the prospect of economic stability and political freedom.