Jakub Gazda | 21 March 2024

Summary

• The first round of the Slovak Presidential Elections will take place on 23rd March 2024. With the chance of a candidate securing fifty percent of all eligible voters being very unlikely, the second round between the two most successful candidates will take place on April 6th. 

• In June 2023, Zuzana Čaputová announced she would not run for a second term of the Slovak Presidency, opening the race to candidates whose participation would have been unlikely if not for the popular incumbent’s decision. 

• As of this article’s writing, ten candidates are vying for the Presidency. Peter Pellegrini and Ivan Korčok are the most likely to face off in the second round. 

Before the June 2023 decision of the incumbent president, Zuzana Čaputová, not to pursue a second five-year term, the topic of the 2024 presidential elections was all but dormant, with the majority of the Slovak political establishment being concerned with the election campaign for the national assembly, which took place in late September 2023. The results of the 2023 national elections and the return of Robert Fico to the role of Prime Minister have set the pace and central themes of the presidential campaign, including the War in Ukraine and the attempted liberalisation of the country’s criminal code. 

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 133.04 billion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 24,470 (2023)

• HDI: 0.855 (2021)

• Official currency: Euro

Demography

• Population: 5.4 million (2023)

• Ethnic composition (2022)

  • Slovak 83.8%

  • Hungarian 7.8% & Romani 1.2%

• Religion (2022)

  • 68.8% Christian & 23.8% no religion

Role of the President in the Slovak government 

• Slovakia is a parliamentary republic, with legislative powers vested into the government, which is formed based on a majority in the country’s 150-seat National Assembly (Parliament).  

• The President has a ceremonial role, primarily representing the country internationally and domestically. Nonetheless, even with limited powers, the Presidency has an intrinsic role within the checks and balances of Slovakia’s democratic structures. These include, apart from being the Commander-in-chief of the Slovak Armed Forces, and power to file a petition with the Constitutional Court for a decision on the compliance of treaties or legislation with the Constitution.  

• The president may dissolve and call for elections if the National Parliament finds itself in gridlock over three months.  

• The president is the only elected official who can grant amnesties, pardons, or lower punishments imposed by courts in criminal proceedings. 

Major Candidates

Peter Pellegrini 

Pellegrini is the current frontrunner in the presidential race. First-round polling placed him and the runner-up, Korčok, within the margin of error; however, second-round polling continues to indicate that Pellegrini is the likely victor.  

As the candidate of his party, Hlas-Sd (Voice Social Democracy), of which he is the leader, and his coalition partner, former party boss and current Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Smer-Sd (Direction Social Democracy), Pellegrini is primarily drawing on the coalition government’s voter base. 

As a social democrat, the candidate highlights the necessity of a strong state whose primary concern is the well-being of citizens and social justice. Furthermore, regarding domestic politics, Pellegrini declares the need for political cohesion and the necessity of stronger president-government cooperation, suggesting extensive cooperation between himself and the current government. His chief campaign slogan was a call for “calm” (other possible translations serenity, peace, quiet), primarily based on the chaotic governance Slovakia experienced following the 2020 parliamentary elections and handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, and in stark contrast to the opposition’s protest campaign which has been dominating Slovak politics since the 2023 elections. 

On international issues, while not reproducing the anti-western rhetoric of Robert Fico, especially in regards to the Ukraine War, Pellegrini has adopted a toned-down narrative. Whilst refusing the supply of arms to Ukraine on the basis that arms shipments increase the death toll of the conflict, he regularly condemned the actions of the Russian government as unprovoked and illegal, while calling for peace negotiations. Pellegrini’s foreign policy stance can be seen as a balancing game with the aim of not alienating the two contrasting voter bases he has been readily appealing to (the more nationalist anti-western Smer-Sd and the more moderate pro-western Hlas-Sd). 

Ivan Korčok 

Korčok, while a civil candidate, who raised 15,000 signatures to enter the race officially, is primarily regarded as the candidate of the current parliamentary opposition. He secured the support of all but one of the opposition parties, including Progresívne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia), the biggest opposition party and one from which the incumbent Čaputova originates. Furthermore, Korčok opposes the current Fico government, primarily on the issues of international politics and a controversial Criminal Law amendment, which would allow many current government associates to avoid prosecution. Thus, Korčok’s voter base is primarily that of the current political opposition. 

Ideologically, Korčok declares himself to be a moderate conservative, with his campaign rhetoric including the promotion of responsible patriotism, which respects the ideological and social diversity of the country, in his words, “a reaction to the far-rights hijacking of the topic”. Furthermore, as a reaction to Slovakia's most recent political developments, which have seen a series of opposition-led protests against the legislative decisions of the Fico-led government, Korčok has positioned himself, if elected, as the last line of defence against the government decisions and policy. 

On international issues, Korčok, the former Minister for Foreign Affairs and a long-time diplomat, supports the Ukrainian cause against Russian aggression. He reiterates Slovakia’s essential position in both the European Union and NATO, criticises the current government, and argues that the PM is actively alienating Slovakia from its strategic economic and security partners. 

Štefan Harabin 

Harabin is the only other candidate currently polling above ten percent in the first round. Thus, his decision to support either of the runner-ups may be critical in shaping the second-round election results. Harabin’s candidacy primarily rests on the support of the far-right nationalist voter block, which shapes his rhetoric. As a former judge and Minister of Justice, Harabin’s recent political career has consisted of attempted and failed runs in the 2019 and 2020 presidential and parliamentary elections respectively. 

Until 18th March 2024, Harabin did not have the formal backing of any political party; nonetheless, thanks to his far-right populist and often xenophobic rhetoric, the candidate has secured the support of the voter bases of dominant far-right parties. The rhetoric mentioned above has primarily taken place through anti-migration rhetoric; however, there is also the criticism of the European Union and the West, claiming these as responsible for the dissemination of LGBTQ+ propaganda and the assault on traditional values. 

On international issues, Harabin has adopted and reproduces the conspiracy narratives produced primarily by Russia-allied platforms. These include the defending of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the declaration that he would have acted in the same way if in Putin’s position while reiterating the claims that the Ukrainian government committed in the period since the 2014 revolution, genocide on the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine. Finally, in the context of Slovakia’s membership in international organizations, the candidate advocates for Slovakia’s departure from the European Union and NATO, with the need to search for security guarantees from the Russian Federation. 

Forecast

• Most recent polling seems to indicate a close race, especially in the first round, between Korčok and Pellegrini.  

• The second round has become more challenging to call for either candidate, yet projecting Pellegrini as the more probable winner. Thus, while the chance of Harabin making it into the second round is almost certainly unlikely, a potential show of support to Pellegrini or the call for his voters to boycott the second round may decide the next Slovak President. 

• Commentators and political opposition have signaled a potential threat a president cooperating with the current government may pose to Slovakia’s international reputation. However due to the President’s limited powers it is highly unlikely that the election of either of the front-runners may have a deep impact on Slovakia’s domestic or international policy.