Sara Etukudo | 23 March 2024

Summary

• Senegal will hold its delayed election on 24th March following weeks of unrest and political turmoil after President Macky Sall failed to postpone the election as it was ruled by the Constitutional Council as unconstitutional. 

• Tensions between the National Assembly and Constitutional Council reached a critical point after the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) accused two constitutional judges of corruption. 

• The Constitutional Council has vetted 19 candidates to run, and the main contenders include Prime Minster Amadou Ba. 

Senegal will hold its delayed election on 24th of March following weeks of unrest and political turmoil after the Constitutional Council blocked President Macky Sall from postponing the election and two key opposition members were released from prison, giving them momentum. Public support for Sall has significantly dropped during his second term due to the ongoing cost of living crisis, which will be his last. Known for being one of the most stable democracies in West Africa, Senegal has the potential to either enter a routine of corruption or continue to improve its legacy of democracy and stability.   

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 35.19 billion (2024)

• GDP per capita: USD 1,890 (2024)

• HDI: 0.512 (2021)

• Official currency: CFA Franc

Demography

• Population: 17.8 million (2023)

• Ethnic composition (2019)

  • 39.7% Wolof, 27.5% Fula (Pulaar) & 16% Sereer  

  • 4.9% Mandinka, 4.2% Jola & 2.4% Soninke 

• Religion (2019)

  • 97.5% Muslim

Electoral System

• The National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale) is the unicameral legislature of Senegal with 165 seats and elected by the seven million registered voters. 

• 112 members of the National Assembly are directly elected by plurality vote in single and multi-seat constituencies under a majoritarian system. 

• Of these, 15 are saved for diaspora (overseas) voters. 

• 53 members are elected by a proportional representation vote based on the national distribution of votes. 

• All members serve five-year terms. 

• The President is elected by absolute majority vote to serve two five-year terms, a second-round runoffs will be held if no candidate receives over half of the votes.

Major Political Parties & Candidates

• Coalition Benno Bokk Yaakaar (United in Hope)

  • Won 82 seats last election, falling short of the majority of 83 seats with a minority government.

  • Led by Mahammed Dionne, the former PM who serve from 2014 to 2019.

  • Founded in 2012 by the incumbent President Macky Sall, who has been in power since 2012. 

  • Member parties:

    • Alliance for the Republic

    • Alliance of the Forces of Progress 

    • Socialist Party of Senegal 

    • Rewmi  

• Coalition Yewwi Aksan Wik (Liberate the People)

  • Won 56 seats last election as the second-largest group in the National Assembly.

  • Led by Ousmane Soko, who served in the National Assembly from 2017 to 2022

  • Main opposition force against Macky Sall’s government.

  • Member parties:

    • Senegalese Democratic Party 

    • Jotna Coalition 

    • Democratic Renaissance Congress

• Wallu Senegal Coalition (Save Senegal Coalition)

  • Won 24 seats last election. 

  • Led and founded by Abdoulaye Wade, the 97-year-old ex-president of Senegal who served from 2000 to 2012. 

  • Entered an alliance with Yewwi Aksan Wik coalition to form a majority in the 2022 parliamentary election.

  • Secured 24 seats as the third largest group in the National Assembly. 

  • Member parties

    • African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics, and Paternity (PASTEF) 

    • Party for Unity and Rally

In early February, two weeks before the election, President Macky Sall attempted to postpone the election due to unresolved disputes over the list of candidates and was voted by the National Assembly to be rescheduled to take place for the 15th of December. However, Senegal’s Constitutional Council ruled it unconstitutional and ordered the government to hold the election as soon as possible, probably to allow time for election campaigning. Intending to calm the public, the government released several hundred political prisoners following the violent protests and political tension.  

Tensions between the National Assembly and Constitutional Council reached a critical point after PDS accused two constitutional judges of corruption. A parliamentary inquiry spearheaded by Senegalese lawmakers was approved concerning how some candidates’ applications to enter the race were refuted. This inquiry was called by the PDS, led by Abdoulaye Wade, which his son, Karim Wade, is a member of. Karim Wade was excluded from the race because of his French citizenship, as citizens of exclusively Senegalese nationality are only allowed to run. Supporters of Wade claim that two Constitutional Council judges have “dubious” connections with some candidates, particularly Prime Minister Amadou Ba, Sall’s preferred successor.    

The Constitutional Council has vetted 19 candidates to run. The main contenders include PM Amadou Ba, ex-Dakar Mayor Khalifa Aboubacar Sall, Former PM Idrissa Seck, Anta Babacar Ngom (only female contender), former PM Mahammed Boun Abdallah Dionne, Former Minister Aly Ngouille Ndiaye, and Bassirou Diomaye Faye.  Notably, Faye is running in place of Ousmane Sonko who was disqualified over a defamation conviction. Sonko’s party PASTEF, was dissolved by the government in February 2024. Members of PASTEF and other parties formed a coalition and named Faye as a backup candidate. Sonko urged his supporters to vote for Faye, and like Sonko, Faye was convicted of defamation and contempt in court. However, as there is no ruling yet, he remains eligible. According to the International Monetary Fund, Senegal’s economy is expected to grow by 8% in 2024 as the country is on the verge of becoming an oil and gas producer. This intensifies the presidential race as the future leader has the potential to establish Senegal as one of the leading industries in Africa.  

Foreign investors are closely monitoring Senegal’s elections amid delays and uncertainty surrounding candidates. They are concerned about the potential political and economic changes that opposition leaders may implement if they win the elections. While most candidates state that they intend to maintain the economic status quo, candidates like Faye and Sonko have proposed implementing a new currency and renegotiating energy and mining contracts. Historically, Senegal has been the most stable democracy in West Africa, with peaceful transitions from power since independence in the 60s. This stability makes it a safe investment decision in comparison to other countries in the region that have been plagued with military coups such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. According to data from the United Nations Trade Agency, direct foreign investment into Senegal grew to approximately $2.6 billion in 2021, a significant increase from ten years ago. By 2025, financial institutions suggest that the gross domestic product will reach double digits due to the upcoming natural gas projects. While France remains as Senegal’s largest investor, other countries like China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have also pledged investments. For example, in early 2023, Dubai pledged $1.1 billion for port construction. However, with uncertainty surrounding the election, these foreign businesses face higher operational and security risks. While most of the international investors have not halted their operations, many have adopted a “wait and see” approach regarding the potential legislative changes that could come with a new government.  

Faye remains a favourite amongst the youth of the country, who make up the majority of Senegal’s eligible voters and is considered a strong candidate for the presidency. In his political manifesto, Faye stated that he wanted to renounce the CFA Franc, which is primarily used amongst French colonies in Africa, and establish a new national currency. Currently, Senegal is a member of WAEMU, where the CFA Franc is pegged to the euro and governed by a central bank. Faye also promised to examine mining and energy agreements so that resources are distributed fairly. Additionally, he plans to grant more opportunities to local companies like Petrosen, a state-owned oil company, in offshore areas that haven’t been assigned yet. Furthermore, Faye aims to address youth unemployment, a significant issue for Senegal. Afrobarometer data reveals that three out of ten Senegalese aged 18 to 35 are unemployed despite the country’s economic growth. Faye’s commitment to tackling this issue will be closely watched, as he faces pressure to deliver on his promises of employment and economic growth for the youth.

Forecast

• If Sall has as much influence on the electoral system, Ba will likely be the winner of the election. His win will likely cause unrest in the country due to perception of corruption.

• Sall’s declining popularity could push the voters to select candidates not being endorsed by him, such as Ba. 

• As most voters are under 25, and there is growing anti-neocolonialism at the hands of France sentiment, the population would want to engage more with a potential substantial increase of registered voters compared to the 2022 elections.