08 August 2024

Summary

• Obtaining nearly 60% of the votes, Claudia Sheinbaum was elected Mexico’s first-ever female president.

• She inherits a troubling political landscape with upcoming foreign challenges and domestic gang violence.

• Mexico will have the challenge of positioning itself to benefit from the US-China trade war, without antagonising either of the two key trading partners.

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 1.79 trillion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 13,926 (2023)

• HDI: 0.781 (2022)

• Official currency: Mexican peso (MXN)

Demography

• Population: 129.5 million (2023)

• Religion

• 77.7% Catholic, 11.2% Protestant

Electoral System

• 628 seats in the bicameral Congreso de la Union

• 128 in the upper chamber elected for six years.

• Each of the 32 states elects three senators: Two through the relative majority principle and one through the first minority principle. 

• The remaining 32 seats are allocated based on proportional representation.

• 500 in the lower chamber elected for three years

• 300 are elected in single-member constituencies through relative majority and the remaining 200 are based on proportional representation.

• The President is elected on a six-year term.

On 6th June, Mexico celebrated its largest election in the country’s history, appointing over 20,000 local positions, more than 600 at the federal level, and their first-ever female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. However, it has also been Mexico’s bloodiest election, with at least 37 candidates seeking office being killed since last June, highlighting one of the country’s pervasive problems, insecurity.

Political Parties & Candidates

Sigamos Haciendo Historia Coalition (SHHC)

• Candidate: Claudia Sheinbaum, head of government for Mexico City between 2018 and 2023.

• The coalition between Morena (incumbent ruling party), Partido del Trabajo and Partido Verde Ecologista de Mexico.

• Left-wing coalition to maintain a majority in Congress and the presidency.

Fuerza y Corazón por Mexico Coalition

• Candidate: Xochitl Galvez, Senator between 2018 and 2023.

• The coalition between Mexico’s three oldest parties PAN, PRD and PRI.

• Big-tent coalition trying to prevent SHHC from achieving a supermajority.

Movimiento Ciudadano

• Candidate: Jorge Alvarez Maynez, Deputy from 2015-2018 & 2021-2024.

• The centre-left party advocating for a free-market system but supports state intervention to ensure equitable distribution of goods and services.

Obtaining nearly 60% of the votes, Claudia Sheinbaum was elected Mexico’s first-ever female president. However, despite campaigning as the candidate of continuity and capitalising on her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) high approval ratings, Sheinbaum will also inherit a challenging political landscape.

On the domestic side, tackling insecurity and organised crime, which tainted the electoral process, will need reevaluated. The high degree of political violence during the electoral process showcased the strengthening of Mexico’s largest criminal organisations gained in recent years, which was in part due to AMLO’s passive policy of “hugs not bullets”. Since last June, at least 37 candidates seeking office were killed. Most of them were local candidates, as this level of government has the least institutional strength and thus is most vulnerable to gangs and cartels penetrating it to exert their de facto governing power. Sheinbaum will have to find a way to tackle gang violence and distance herself from her predecessor’s approach to the issue without being too critical, as he still enjoys a high approval rating of 60%.

On the international front, Sheinbaum will face challenges after AMLO’s independentist foreign policy approach. More engagement will be needed when Mexico is trying to position itself closer to the Global South and capitalise on its leadership in Latin America. However, recently damaged relations with Ecuador, Argentina, and Peru might present challenges. Despite the ongoing challenges, the upcoming U.S. elections in November present Sheinbaum with new opportunities to negotiate on how to address insecurity, border control, organised crime and climate change on the international stage. Record flows of migrants crossing through the U.S.-Mexico border have been a burning topic during the 2024 electoral race in the U.S. and a divisive issue to be addressed with Sheinbaum, who has stated her pro-migrant stance on the issue. 

Moreover, Mexican drug cartels are largely blamed for the fentanyl crisis in the U.S., with its high overdose and mortality rates causing the death of thousands of Americans each week. Mexico has become a major transit and production point for the drug, which is then trafficked through the border into the US before its distribution across the country. Cooperation between both presidents will be highly important when seeking to address these issues.

With this being said, Mexico currently enjoys a very privileged position capitalising on the trade war between the US and China and the nearshoring effect where business operations are moving from Asia to the Mexican territory to be closer to the US. However, Sheinbaum will also be in the complicated position, of reaping the benefits and closer ties with Washington without antagonising Beijing, also a key trade partner, and vice versa.

Forecast

• Medium-term

  • The complicated international landscape might foster Claudia Sheinbaum to focus on domestic issues during her first months in office. With strong majorities in both houses, she has already stated her intentions to pursue AMLO’s controversial judicial reforms, making the election of Supreme Court judges through popular votes.

• Long-term

  • Sheinbaum is expected to have a more internationalist approach to foreign policy than her predecessor. However, she will have to make important decisions after the U.S. elections in November, which will probably influence Mexico’s degree of engagement with the U.S. and the Global South.