6 March 2024

Summary

• The 2024 Iranian election was an important turning point for not only the Iranian people but also for the rest of the world.

• The election involves the 290-seat Majlis Parliament (Islamic Consultative Assembly) and the 88-member Assembly of Experts who will select the next supreme leader to replace Ali Khamenei. 

• With regard to the Majlis Parliament, turnout was low due to the many protests that were carried out in 2022 regarding both Mahsa Amini and the living crisis in Iran.  

• While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged people to vote, early estimates showed around only 40% turnout, a record-low ever since the 1979 revolution which emphasised the public resentment towards the regime. 

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 386.2 billion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 4,420 (2022)

• HDI: 0.774 (2021)

• Official currency: Iranian Rial

Demography

• Population: 89 million (2023)

• Major ethnic groups

  • Persian, Azeri, Kurd, Lur, Baloch and Arab

• Religion

  • Shia Islam

Electoral system

• Majlis (Parliament)

  • 285 seats are directly elected from 196 constituencies. 

  • The remaining 5 seats are reserved for religious minorities. 

• In single-member constituencies, candidates must get over 25% of votes to win. If not, a runoff is held between the top two candidates. 

• In multi-member constituencies, voters select multiple candidates. Runoffs are held if all seats are not filled by candidates with over 25% of votes. 

Qualifications 

• Candidates must be Iranian citizens, support the Islamic Republic, be practicing Muslims, aged between 30-75.

• Government ministers, military members, and clerics are barred from running. 

The Guardian Council 

• The unelected Guardian Council vets all candidates and disqualifies those deemed disloyal to the regime. 

• Reformists and moderates are regularly barred from running by the Guardian Council. 

• The Majlis also has limited power, with bills subject to veto by the Guardian Council. 

Iran’s parliamentary and Experts Assembly elections face major uncertainty given the political turmoil following recent widespread protests. The regime’s violent crackdown on dissent has further damaged its legitimacy and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei now confronts difficult choices in shaping candidate participation. 

If Khamenei allows moderate and reformist politicians to run, it could boost turnout from the record lows. However, this risks producing legislative bodies that challenge his hardline agenda. Conversely, barring major opponents from the race, as done in 2021, would likely worsen public disillusionment with the political system. Khamenei may still opt for an exclusionary approach to avoid potential opposition power bases before the 2025 presidential election. 

The elections come amid Iran’s dire economic crisis and tensions with the West over its nuclear program. The vote could impact Iran’s future trajectory in both domestic and foreign policy decisions. But given the regime’s history of manipulating elections and sidelining rivals, substantial democratic reforms seem unlikely regardless of the results. Widespread boycotts appear probable especially with recent reports indicating a 40% turnout which is the lowest ever since the 1979 revolution. The election will ultimately serve as a barometer of public sentiment toward the Islamic Republic’s leadership after recent crackdowns. 

This is important as Iran engages in international dilemmas that include: Israel, the Nuclear Deal, The Russia-Ukraine conflict and even some of the more recent controversies like allowing Porn stars to enter the country despite the punishment being the death penalty. Therefore, with the divided approach to these situations, Iran can potentially risk having further protests and instability domestically. Especially as the Iranian Rial continues to plumet and lose its value in the international scene. 

Forecast

• People vs the Regime 

  • Turnout is at the lowest level ever since the 1979 revolution. However, there are doubts about the percentage of turnout for the election. 

  • The Guardian Council is likely to continue disqualifying moderate and reformist candidates, denying them any major foothold in the Majlis. 

• Domestically

  • Hardliners aligned with the Supreme Leader will continue to dominate the parliament given the exclusions. The body will remain a regime rubber stamp. 

  • Minor concessions may be made to allow lesser-known moderates to run, to boost turnout marginally. But major opposition figures will stay barred. 

  • Exclusion of major reformists risks exacerbating the regime's legitimacy crisis domestically and internationally following brutal crackdowns on protests. A very low turnout would signal the Islamic Republic's political system has extremely shallow support among the Iranian populace. 

• Internationally 

  • The Majlis will have little influence on Iran's nuclear negotiations or foreign policy direction, with decisions continuing to be made by Khamenei. However, the Majlis could impact the regime's domestic economic policies and social restrictions following the protests.